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A complete list of everything our PMC has to do in Tarkov
Have you ever wondered the insane amount of suffering our PMC has to endure to complete every quest in the game and have the Hideout maxed out? Well, wonder no longer, because I've done the math. Disclaimer: Long post ahead. I've used guides, data and analysis by other content creators, like Pestily, Europino and Questalace, as well as the all-mighty Tarkov Wiki to make this list. The resulting data should reflect the almost-perfect 100% Tarkov Speedrun starting with a Standard Account at the end of 12.7. I don't know if this has been done before, so cut me some slack for any inconsistencies, as I did this for fun. Killing: The PMCs character arc will take our poor USECs and BEARs from battle-tested veterans to blood-thirsty killing machines the likes of Atila, with an indescribable amount of mental and physical trauma. This is all on the traders, who force us to commit genocide just to gain a standing with them. Here is the ranking:
Mechanic: He just wants to farm bitcoins and assemble weapons in peace. He is responsible for the lowest bodycount of all the traders, at 0 Scavs and 12 PMCs /12 total
Therapist: In a OSHA-violating effort to overwork the hospital's mortician, this twisted practitioner will make us take the lives of 45 Scavs and 0 PMCs /45 total
Skier: Turns out the most notorious mobster of the Tarkov underworld isn't as bad as we all imagined. His quests will grant him a seat at the Hague, nontheless, after ordering the execution of 20 Scavs and 40 PMCs /60 total
Peacekeeper: There is no better way of keeping peace than eliminating all the warring factions I guess. This war criminal will taint the UNTAR reputation for decades, after demanding the scalps of 75 Scavs and 0 PMCs /75 total
Ragman: This American-psycho wannabe deserves life without parole at Russia's most dangerous prison. 125 Scavs and 0 PMCs weight on his conscience / 125 total
Jaeger: It seems the Huntsman Path leads to a mass grave. This old man wants organic compost for his garden, so he demands the corpses of 116 Scavs and 32 PMCs to be laid on his doorstep / 148 total
Prapor: The Russian military hasn't had such a prolific enemy combatant-squanching commander since Georgy Zhukov. 107 Scavs and 82 PMCs. Dozens upon dozens of unmarked graves will litter the wasteland of Tarkov / 189 total
This totals to a staggering 488 Scavs and 166 PMCs.654 mothers will mourn the deaths of their sons, as you long surpass Simo Häyhä as the most effective soldier in recorded history. Use, place, find in raid or deliver: Apart from sustaining irreparable psychological damage as the bringer of so much death, your PMC is also expected to retrieve a back-breaking amount of loot for his Hideout and the 7 Traders of the Apocalypse. From life-saving devices to mere cigarettes, your PMC will have to.
Deliver 12 special items (the bronze pocket watch, gilded zibbo lighter...)
Deliver 27 secure cases, books, letters and the likes
Place 71 GPS markers, WIFI cameras, Jammers and Multitools
Find 47 different locations
Collect 66 medical or food items
Collect 49 clothing items and armor pieces
Deliver 55 weapons
Deliver 21 dogtags
Deliver and Collect a truckload of loose loot, with an ever-expanding shopping list of 652 items
Pay 13,867,000 roubles, 27,500 dollars and 215,000 euros of full-on extortion
Skills: After all this Devil wears Prada reenactment, your PMC is faced with a Sisyphus-like destiny. You need to improve your skills until you get to Health level 9, Stress Resistance level 6, Sniper level 9, Memory level 8, Searching level 9, Charisma level 10, Vitality level 5, Endurance level 2, Attention level 3, Metabolism level 3 and Strength level 2. Some of this skills improve others, so let's start by the independent ones and asume you can completely avoid the deminishing returns mechanic.
Metabolism: You can gain around 3 skill points for a complete dehydration-hydration cycle: 100-0-100. The fastest way to achieve this is to gulp down 20 full jars of mayonnaise, that would be 10Kg of mayo, followed by 20 litres of water.
Sniper: To please your quest-giving overlords, your PMC will have to topload over 4,500 rounds on a sniper rifle. That would be over 100kg of LPS Gzh ammo, at a 401k-destroying price of 1,280,00 roubles in the flea market.
Memory, Search, Charisma and Attention: This 4 skills improve at the same time, by searching bodies and looting containers. As far as I know, you can actively get points in all of them except for Memory, that derives the XP points from the other 3. Long story short, with an average of 0.1 skill points per object found and looted, and 550 total points to get, your PMC will have to loot everything that is not bolted to the floor, ransack and leave stripped clean over 5.500 containers and bodies. A one-man locust plague.
Endurance: You gain XP for sprinting while not-overencumbered. Based on the data I checked, you need to run for roughly 30km. Usain Bolt ran at 44km/h, so let's asume our battle-hardened PMC can run at a 30km/h max for the sake of simplicity. That means an hour of non-stop full-sprint.
Stress Resistance: The fastest way to increase this skill is by receiving damage, and the most consistent way of receiving damage is by placing yourself over a fire, like the ones on Shoreline. At roughly 3 skill points every 30 seconds of flame-induced agony, and a goal of 210 points, you will need to withstand this torture for 34 minutes like a rotisserie chicken. Nothing will stress you after that!
Strength: The most common way of leveling this skill is by walking while overweight. With 0.1 skill points every 23 seconds, with no FP-100 filter and 50kg of shotgun shells in your backpack, this would take 1:55 hours of non-stop walking. Asuming the normal human walks at a 5km/h pace, that means our PMC has to walk the knee-shattering distance of 10km while carrying around 60% of their bodyweight.
Vitality: The most horrendous of them all. To increase vitality you need to suffer, scream and bleed. The most viable way to increase your Vitality is by crawling through barbed wire. This atrocity of a device makes around 10 damage per second. You level 1 point for every 100 points of damage taken. As we are aiming to get 150 points of XP, we will need to fillet ourselves for 1,500 seconds. That's 25 minutes of torture. At a crawling speed of 2km/h, that means our PMC will have to drag his balls over more than 800 meters of barbed wire.
Health: The 3 previous skills give 25% of their XP to this one, so by leveling all of them to their respective threshold, we would be sitting at around 50 Health skill points. As throwing 10 grenades gives us 0.5 skill points, and we are aiming for 500 skill points, we would need to throw over 10,000 nades. That's 76,000,000 roubles in Zarya stun grenades alone.
And that's it. You want to escape Tarkov? Pay the toll! Edit: Some pesky typos Edit 2: Fixed the results of the Vitality skill, thanks to Erkeric for the correction
EDIT : Thanks to everybody for pointing out the few mistakes/improvements that can be made in this new-player level guide. For the sake of summarizing here : - Intel documents are NOT worth 250k. I didn't check them on the flea before writing this and for some reason I always remembered them at 250k. Game is in maintenance so I can't check the real price. That being said, it's still profitable to craft USB into Intel, it's just not x2 profitable. - Scav case : moonshine / intel docs, some people seem to say they've never been profitable. I personally *did not* measure those, I eyeballed it. I'm working on so much shit that I didn't bother. On average I think that I'm in a net positive, but it's as believable as people saying they're not : without proof we can't really say for sure. That bein said, it's certainly more profitable to run lower-tier scav runs that are *faster* when you're online, and to run a moonshine or intel when you log off. It's more efficient to get a lot of runs while you can re-start them every time. - Crafting moonshine : It's not profitable to spam it ; I was under the assumption that the average player who will read this will usually not play for 4-5 hours straight and will end up collecting yesterday's moonshine, craft a new one, and that's it. If that's you're rythm then yes, spam it. If you intend to play more than one craft worth's of time, then you will craft moonshine faster than you can spend it, and it's not really worth to sell it on the flea except to up your market reputation for a small loss (about 10k). So in short : craft moonshine to be able to start a moonshine run for when you log off, but you don't *need* more than that.
Check this out
Here is some actual data on the lavatory !! Hey everybody ! I know it can be a struggle to get a stable economy in this game, especially when you die a lot. Today I'm gonna try and give a few guidelines on how to make money safely, efficiently, fast, or in any other way we can think of. If you're struggling to stay above the 15-20 million rouble treshold, this guide is definitely for you. Very often I'll hear newer players say "Damn I can't seem to make money, I keep loosing. Every time I take gear I die instantly". There is some truth in that. Today I'll help you improve your survival rate, but most importantly I'll unbalance the other side of the equation. When you complain about losing a lot of money, I will help you spend less by a significant margin, as well as earn more. You'll also get rid of gear fera naturally. Remember this throughout this very, very long read : It all depends on how you want to play, and how much. Some of these tips will not fit how you want to play the game, and like Nikita always says : this game is supposed to be fun before anything else.
Safety Score : 100% Reward : Moderate but very stable. Maxing your hideout should be one of your top priorities, probably before telling your mom how much you love her every now and then. If you're not doing either of those, the big gamer in you knows what to do. Early wipe, save your fuel for when you're online and playing. If you're playing, your generator should definitely be running and all your stations should be crafting something. Once you have Medstation 1, Workbench 1 and Lavatory 2, you really have no reason to turn your generator off when you're playing. Once you have the bitcoin farm, you should never turn off the generator. Medstation : Craft salewas and/or IFAKs permanently. They cost 8k and sell for 15k. That's a net profit of about 25k / hour for salewas, as well as never having to buy any. Lavatory : Always be crafting Bleach. If you have 2 empty blue fuel, use those empty cans to craft a Magazine case. You can then keep the magazine cases until you've enough for your liking and sell those for a good profit. The bleach you will use to buy the 6B47 helmets which are better than the SSh-68 helmets. Buying from 2x bleach barter at ragman level 1 means you get the helmet for 18k (instead of 33k on the market). This helmet has better head coverage, less slow/negative effects, less weight, has a slot for a mount, has +11 ergonomics AND is cheaper than the 22k SSh-68. That being said, it has a slight noise reduction that the Ssh does not have. If you wear headphones I'd say this is negligible but debatable. I prefer to have the extra protection and ergonomics for sure, considering it's slightly cheaper. You can also barter for that helmet and instantly sell it back for a profit (five times) and level up ragman money requirements. Bleach can also be traded for the Blackjack backpack at level 4, as well as the TTV rig at level 2. You should definitely do it. Sell excess bleach on the flea market when the prices are around 10.5k or more. (around midnight Central European Time). Workbench : You can buy Power Cords and craft Wires forever and always make a profit. Buy in the morning and sell in the evening for better profits (CET timezone). For even more profit, you can craft gunpowders and ammo which tend to also be ridiculously pricy at night. Buying grenades from Peacekeeper and crafting green (Eagle) gunpowder is a good way to make a lot of money and level up Peacekeeper. Intel Center : You main objective is to get this one to level 3 for reduced fees and better quest rewards, but also access to the bitcoin farm at level 2. If you need FiR for quests, craft that. When you're done craft Intel Documents at all times (buy the USB), and use it for scav case or sell for a x2 profit. ( 3x40 for USB = 120, documents sell for 250) Bitcoin Farm : Once you have it, spend all your money on GPU until its maxxed, then level it up even more. The BTC farm is definitely worth it. At 50GPU you need to connect every 15 hours to clic. If you can't, keep it level 2 and connect every 24 hours to clic. Even at level 1 its worth. But its much, much faster at higher levels. From 0 to 50 GPUs it takes about 30 days to pay for itself. GPUs should not be sold until you maxxed it. Water Collector : Must be running at all times. Buy the components if you don't have them. Booze Generator : Must be running at all times. Buy the components if you don't have them. Scav Case : Always have it running on moonshine, and use intel documents once you're done crafting one. Nutrition Unit : It's not really worth crafting sugar to put in the Booze gen, as the price for chocolate is pretty much = the price of sugar. So buy the sugar instead and craft something else. I tend to craft Hot Rods when the prices are good (morning) and then use them to barter 5.45 BS Ammo with Prapor or sell for a profit. If you do all that, you should have about 150k an hour fairly easily. Don't forget to check it between every raid.
Safety Score : 100% Reward : Quite good. Once your mom has received all the love she deserves and your hideout is taken care of, you should have max traders (traders are a requirement for most of the hideout anyway). Traders level 4 will net you much better prices on most mods and open very good barter trades. Buy as much as you can from barter trades. You can buy almost everything from it, and it's usually at least 25% cheaper to buy the requirements and then do the barter. Ragman4 has the CPC Armored Rig which is level 5 armor, you'll get it for about 200k instead of 250k on the flea. The Slick is also much cheaper. The Blackjack backpack is literally half priced. You can also NOT use what you barter and just sell it back to a dealer (sometimes the same from which you bartered) for a profit as well as having 2 times the loyalty money increase (from bartering then from selling). Another good example is buying a Recbat 14k from the market, getting an ADAR for skier, selling it to Mechanic and winning 8k just like that. You can find every single barter that nets a profit yourself and just buy-resell and you'll probably make another 100k every reset, if you really are struggling and have the patience. I personally advise to just use the equipment for yourself unless you're levelling traders, but I wouldn't go as far as buying all profitable items every reset. Every trader at every level has good barters. You can make a full decent kit at level 1 traders for about 40k roubles on barter, instead of 90 if you buy it all. (Paca for masks, helmet for bleach, ADAR for recbatt, salewa from craft, backpack, etc. all barters) Bleach is beautiful and is coveted in the real world for its ability to cure diseases.
Safety Score : 100% Reward : Very profitable. Don't mod out of your reach. Don't mod Meta. If money is an issue for you, having +1 ergo won't change your life. For example, Priced at 10k roubles Priced at 45k Roubles See where I'm going with this? If you have money, sure, go for the Shift. If you wanna have fun and try, sure, go for it as well. But if you're struggling, buy 4 cobras and mod 4 guns for the price of 1% recoil which will not make you a gamer god anyway. Also, do NOT buy mods from the flea market when you see you can buy them from traders. Look at the top of the market, if the mod is greyed out, look at the price. It means you don't have access (yet). If the price is too inflated for you, find another mod. There are always other mods. You can make 2 AKMs that have a difference of 2% recoil and 4 Ergonomics and have a 150k price difference. It's up to you. When money is the issue, this was the answer. Note : Some guns are inherently much more expensive. Guns shooting 5.56 or 5.45 tend to be more expensive than 7.62. AKMs are VERY good budget guns. They're a bit harder to handle, but you can get a fully modded AK for 150-200k, where as you will have an entry level M4 for that price. 7.62 PS ammo is also incredibly cheap while being decent. Play 7.62 if you're struggling with money. It's not meta, but it's far more than enough, trust me. You'll rarely lose fights exclusively because you had PS ammo in an AKM. Rarely.
How much you usually extract with, on average, per map
How much you usually go in raid with, on average, per map
These will help us measure how much you fuck up or not. Lets make it simple. If you have a 500k loadout and you usually extract with 100k, at 10% survival rate, that means you will spend 500k x 10 = 5.000.000 roubles over 10 raids on average, die 9 times, and earn 100k once. This very obvious example shows the loss. Basically we're gonna try and balance that equation so that you never lose money on average. You'll have ups and downs obviously, but over a week or two, it'll smooth things out for you, like math always does in a pleasant conversation with a girl. So what can you do to improve that equation ?
4.1 Improve survival rate
Seems simple enough, DIE LESS. You do not need to be good, smart, or special to die less. If you die a lot, do something different. If you die less, try more of that. Explore statistical advantages through different gameplay. What can you do to die less practically? Here is a list of checkboxes you can tick depending on your money, skill, mood, or any other factor like the map and sheer luck:
Fight from a bigger distance. People miss more from far (so will you, but killing less is irrelevant when you want to die less)
Fight with better gear (supressed, better armor, better ammo, etc.). Its expensive, but it technically helps
Don't fight at all. Avoid fights, run away from gunshots. 99.3% of people who didn't get shot survive a raid.
Wait more, play slowly. If you go with the flow of players, you'll be with the players. Avoid that "wave" and stay behind it. When you come across players trying to extract to where you spawned, hide.
Play with friends if you have any. If not, your mom loves you and so do I. I do coaching so do a lot of other decent players, look it up.
Whenever you die, look at what killed you. Did you take a risk ? Did you lack skill ? Were you out of position ? Were you unlucky ? Try to be as OBJECTIVE as possible even in the frustration. It's pretty much always your fault if you died, avoid toxicity and learn something from that instead. If you took a fight with good gear and ammo and just lost, its probably skill/positioning. It's fine. Learn the game, fight differently, and with time it'll get better. If you were in the open, don't go in the open. If you were sprinting in the middle of interchange and got ambushed, well. Don't do that. Learn.
Do all that, it'll give you a LOT of data to actually improve by just doing something different without really being fastestronger, just smarter. And I repeat : you can do some of it, all of it, it depends on what you like, what you're comfortable with, and the time/investment you're putting in the game. It's okay to play at your own pace.
4.2 Reduce gear cost
The second part of our "profit equation" above is how much gear you take with you. Using previous tips, reduce that cost. Barters, cheaper mods, etc.
4.3 Increase extracted value
This one is not as tricky as it sounds. Basically there are two ways to extract with more money in the backpack :
Know what/where to loot
Have a bigger backpack.
The goal is to pay for the gear you will loose when you die while making a profit on top. That one time you extract if you have a MBSS backpack, you'll need items worth like 50k per slot to break even. If you take a tri-zip, suddenly it's only 30k per slot. If you take a blackjack and blackrock from good old ragman, suddenly it's 10k per slot. So you can break even by looting crickents and DVD players almost. See where I'm going ? Always take a tri-zip or bigger unless you're doing something special. That way you can afford to loot shitty areas, take less risk, and survive more while having a little less value. We'll cover that in a minute, but there are ways to loot high value items, moderate value and low value. Those have also different risk/reward. All of those are also map specific. In woods I'll often go with a 6B3TM armored rig for 40k, no helmet, 20k headphones and a sniper rifle. Rest is pouched so does not count. That's less than 100k investment. All players tend to have low value gear so I never extract with a lot either so it balances out. But on Woods, my survival rate is 20% instead of my overall 40%. So I know it's not a map I can reliably make money on, because I measured that accurately over time. This example is very common and should make sense to you. Same goes for interchange where I have more about 50% survival but will tend to go in with 600k worth of gear, but will also often extract with over 500k quite regularly. Different ratios, different values, different purposes. You can measure your own data if you're willing to do so, or you can eyeball it. Eyeballing it is much faster but very inaccurate because you will tend to include emotions in the mix when you die. You'll remember losses ~2x more than your wins (that's somewhat scientifically proven), and if you're eyeballing your loadout you might think you have 600k but really you might have only 450k. I would advise to go hardcore and measure it all for price, initial loadout, losses and earnings, for each map.
5. Money runs
Now money runs are vast and numerous. All include different levels of risk and reward. It's up to you once again to find what you're willing to do for the time it takes, the fun it will give you and how much it will actually help you. You can always try them all for ~50 raids the sake of trying something different and see how your data is impacted. it doesn't have to be 50 in a row if you don't want to. As long as you keep track of it it can be over a whole wipe. You'd have your data ready for the next wipe :) Faster is better though.
5.1 Hatchling runs
Safety Score : 100% Reward : Very Variable. Mentally exhausting. Those are incredibly money efficient. You're investing a gear of 0 value, so whatever you extract with is 100% win, so you cannot possibly lose money that way. Is it fun? Is it rewarding? I don't care, to each is own. Statistcally speaking, hatchling runs are an efficient way to make money. They do however require a little bit of knowledge, but not skill. You'll be much more efficient at doing these kind of runs if you know where to go, what to look for, and how to get there depending on your spawn. That being said, such knoweldge is easily found ; it's nothing complex, it just takes time to learn. Once again, depends on how much you're willing to invest (if not roubles, time).
5.2 Scav runs
Safety Score : 100% Reward : Low-ish Scav runs are also incredibly efficient for the same reason as hatchlings. Except those have a cooldown. Statisticall speaking I have noticed you should always run your scavs as fast as possible on the map where you extract both the fastest and most frequently. The explanation is simple, lets make it simpler : The scav is a button that makes you earn free money. When you press it the button becomes unpressable for some time, when you release the button you earn money (sometimes). That means you want to release the button as often as possible. And for that, you need to release it as fast as possible. It's that simple. So make scavs incredibly fast. I'm talking "Run through" fast. Unless you're looking for FiR items or doing something specific like annoying a streamer, you should literally run straight to the extract every single time, and loot what you have that doesn't make you go out of your way too much. Usually I suggest factory, go in, kill a random scav, loot it, get out. Two weapons is at LEAST 50k, 100 if they have a scope. There you go. That's 100k every 20 minutes (or less with intel center). That's MUCH BETTER than going up to 150-200k but taking 30 minutes to extract, and taking more risk by spending more time in the map. Every second you're in someone can shoot. Nobody can shoot you in the hideout. The exception to that rule is Scavs with a pilgrim which you can take on your favourite loot-run map, probably interchange or reserve. There you should just fill everything you can and extract once you're full, no matter what you have. 30 crickents and an extra gun is fine.
5.3 Stash runs
Safety Score : Very Reward : Okay Those are very very safe and can be done with a pistol and a backpack only. Very cheap, quite unchalleneged, for a moderate reward. Just go on a map that you like and run around and loot all stashes until you're full, then get out. You can vary the map/route depending on the traffic of players. Interchange and shoreline are good contenders for that. It'll net you easy money. Not great money, but definitely safe.
5.4 Loot Runs
Safety Score : Moderate Reward : Quite alright Once you have better knowledge/skill you can start having a specific route in a specific map, depending on a specific spawn. So it'll take time to learn. Usually very similar than a hatchling run except this time you bring moderate gear and go for moderate loots. For example, instead of going for fast techlight, in-and-out interchange, you can decide "alright I'll loot 100% of Oli and the computers in the back", it'll take time, but it'll make good loot. More money than stashes, definitely will see scavs to kill, and most probably some more pvp. More risk. If you win that PvP you have even more loot as well. But overall good reward. Loot runs need to be "scheduled" and thought of after several tries, so you know how much you can take per person depending on backpack size. For example you can't say "lets loot oli" if you have a 5-man with blackjacks, you'll all be empty. Adapt.
Safety Score : Insane Reward : Unreliably moderate This one is pretty obvious. Very risky, unpredictable rewards. Usually better than loot runs when you survive. I won't elaborate on this, because if you're reading this far you're probably struggling in PvP. And the rest of this guide already covers a fair bit.
Safety Score : "Meh" Reward : Very profitable. Now this is very, very important. Always insure your gear. Always. If you die you will get stuff back, pretty much for free. If you're really struggling people won't loot your "trash", so you WILL get it back. If you play in a group it's very likely that people will hide your stuff too. And most importantly : you can insurance fraud. This is the best way to balance the equation we talked about earlier. If you find a decent-ish gun, replace yours. You drop your initial investment by a significant margin, you will definitely get it back, and if you extract it's a flat profit. Weapons don't take inventory slot, so if you have two weapons that are not yours initially they will usually pay for your whole gear. I have quite often left my super-mega-modded HK just for an average M4 or other weapon that I can fight with, just so I can reduce my investment by 350k and up my reward by like 200k instantly. Replace your headphones all the time too, that's an easy -30+30k, same with helmets. even if it's a bit broken or slightly worse. If you're struggling with money, try to leave every raid with at least 3-4 pars of your equipment that aren't yours initially. But value the risk behind this. I won't leave my slick for a Paca at the third minute of a raid just to have that extra 28k. I won't leave my meta-modded HK for a naked mosin. But if it seems decent/doable, do it. It will pay off. Because even if you die, you still get your shit back, and gun is usually the most expensive part of the gear.
7. Final notes
It's all about balance. Find what works *for you* and try shit out. Really, try. You'll die, you'll learn, you'll adapt with data to back that up. I find it crazy that people will die and not try to learn from it. That's how you will improve as a player. First you gotta get smarter, then you'll get better. And with time, skill, mechanics, gamesense, all that will improve on the side. Earning more will snowball in your favour. And if you know you're statistically okay, you will have a much smaller gear fear and enjoy the game more. Sorry for the wall of text, you guys should be used to it with me by now :D I made these guides in video but not in english, so here I am typing it all for you guys. Enjoy :)
NightOwl Halloween Drop: Descriptions, Info, FAQ and Tips
This will be the last I'll post in-regards to NightOwl drops.From now on drop info will be posted in the NightOwlseeds subreddit We can only pin 2 posts at a time, and it can get confusing for new and existing users. I will be updating this thread throughout the day, check last edited.- NightOwl subreddit linked,
"My pack has a blank label, how do I know what I have?"
Those are the "Secret Owl Society" packs, they come labeled with UV ink. Daz almost always provides a small blacklight keychain, use it to reveal the pack name.
"Can I make multiple orders and get the tester pack?"
As long as the combined total is $250, and hasn't been shipped yet, then you get 1 tester pack ($500 for 2 tester packs). A new bit of info, you get another tester pack per $250 spent, dealer's choice.
No, you don't need TSB Premium to make a purchase. This was an option for paying members to get a chance to access the drop early. Nothing was exclusive to premium, everyone has access to all the strains.
"I got a confirmation email, it still says "processing", should I be worried?"
As long as you have a confirmation email (maybe a paid email), then there's nothing to worry about your order has been received.
When purchasing NightOwl seeds from The Seed Bazaar on 10/10 at 12 AM, WHATEVER IS IN YOUR CART, ISN'T RESERVED. NEW TIPS ITEMS ARE ADDED/UPDATED ONE BY ONE. THERE ARE TWO PAGES OF SEEDS. IF YOU HAVE AN ISSUE WITH YOUR ORDER EMAIL [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) PREMIUM ISN'T NECESSARY. It's best to purchase what you want FAST, everything is and always has been limited in quantity. Don't leave the item(s) in your cart and go check your plants and start some LST or a res change, don't go start cleaning your tent, CHECK YOUR ITEMS OUT FAST. Orders usually are combined to help with shipping, this should help with ordering fast, and comments have been enabled at checkout too 👍. Last tip, make an account ahead of time, and login. Should help speed up the checkout process. Price per pack is $50 USD. Website and packaging say 3 seeds but typically get 5 no option for other pack sizes, plus free international shipping. This is the LAST SCHEDULED DROP from NightOwl till Valentine's day, which is expected to have the new F4 photo to auto cultivars. This is if there aren't any delays or setbacks in the timeline. The new NightOwl Sweater doesn't have a set date yet, could be some time in November. Chocolates are for the US only, food and customs don't go together. I THINK Daz said put it in the comments if you'd like the chocolate and he'd get back to you to figure out how to ship it (might have to pay for packaging and postage). Only If there are chocolates or ashtrays left, Daz will offer them up as an item on the seed bazaar for the cost of shipping which is usually around $15. Seedopoly boards are being sent out, pieces won't go out till the New Year, and the prizes are US only.
Spend $250 get an UNRELEASED TESTER PACK
Spend $500 get 2 UNRELEASED TESTER PACKS
Tester packs are labeled, but unknown till you receive it.
Scratch Card Game
Match the Mummies, scratch card game *WHILE SUPPLIES LAST, 1st COME 1st SERVED\*
Zamaldelica Express x Cosmic Queen 75/25 Sativa/Indica 75-80 days from sprout A long time coming, the Galaxy Brain is finally here! These large, branchy plants are covered with frost from the stems up! Piercingly sweet fruit scents and mouth coating flavors accompany a soaring euphoric head high, along with a relaxing body effect that doesn’t hamper your daily activities. I’m expecting this one to become a staple in the autoflower connoisseur’s garden. The reversal used was selected from over 40 Cosmic Queens and was extremely sativa dominant. I used this same expression for an unreleased seed run a few years back and she produced some of the most exquisitely beautiful and flavorful flowers. The female used was extremely pungent, with sappy and bulbous resin heads that stink up the whole room when burst. She also had extremely fat calyxes, providing massive amounts of surface area for the resin heads to call home.
Fugue State x Cosmic Queen True F1 Hybrid Limited Edition 75/25 Sativa/Indica 75-85 days from sprout 2-4 ounces average 3 Feminized Seeds Large, easy growing sativa dominant plants with heavy branching and intense crystal production. Super sweet, peppery, and buttery flavors accompany an intensely uplifting head high and an electrically charged body feel. The Spotless Mind name gives a tip of the cap to the Amnesia Haze in her heritage, which carries through to this cross. Overindulge and you will find yourself becoming forgetful and may experience recollection difficulties, but in a fun way. She has also been known to encourage bedroom activities, making for a nice nightstand stash. If you are looking for an anytime sativa that won’t make your mind race aimlessly, look no further. The same reversal that was used for Galaxy Brain and Cosmic Apprentice was also used for this Limited Edition.
Blue Microverse F4 x Cosmic Queen F4 *Quick Finish* 50/50 Sativa/Indica 65-75 days from sprout 1.5-3 ounce average 3 Feminized Seeds Expect medium to large plants with creamy blue raspberry lemonade golf ball buds running along the side branches, leading up to chunky top colas all wrapped in gooey, long-stemmed trichomes. Another beautiful true F1 hybrid with a 50/50 blend for a balanced, comforting mind and body experience. Great for relaxing after work when you’re ready to start winding down. For the reversal I used a stocky, faster finishing Cosmic Queen as the pollen donor which will help add vigor and potency while keeping the stretch down. **Be sure to keep airflow and humidity in check during the final few weeks, as the flower density can lead to bud rot in the wrong conditions. **
Strawberry Nuggets F4 x Cosmic Queen F4 *Quick Finish* 40/60 Sativa/Indica 65-75 days from sprout 1.5-3 ounce average 3 Feminized Seeds Expect medium-sized bushes with very sturdy branches that reach up and fill the canopy alongside the main cola. Rock hard nugs of pinks, purples, emerald, and blue hues will create all the bag appeal you could ask for, with a sweet cheesy strawberry funk that will have you smelling the bag again and again. Another true F1 and the heaviest indica hybrid of the lot, ranging from therapeutic to narcotic depending on your intake. Perfect for a dessert smoke or nightcap to relax your body before sailing off into the dream world. For the reversal I used a stocky, faster finishing Cosmic Queen as the pollen donor which will help add vigor and potency while keeping the stretch down. ***Be sure to keep an eye on these during early as the Strawberry Nuggets line can throw a ball or two during sexing, right where the side branches meet the main stem. It is rare, but can be brought about by stress or too strong an application of nutes during the sexing stage and seems to be most common when using humic acid. If you do see a ball pop up it can be removed and the plant will continue on fully female to finish her life. Also, keep airflow and humidity in check during the final few weeks, as the flower density can lead to bud rot in the wrong conditions. **\*
(Chem City Blues x Chemdogging) X Cosmic Queen F4 *Super Sativa* 60/40 Sativa/Indica 75-85 days from sprout 2-4 ounce average 3 Feminized Seeds Expect large, easy growing plants with satellite branches that reach up to the shoulders of the canopy, but be sure to stake her before she goes too far into flower or she will buckle under the weight of her blooms. The piercing old school perfumes she puts off range from skunky blueberries to creamy chems, and her soda can cola structure is sure to impress! This F1 polyhybrid is recommended for heavier smokers and those looking for help with pain management, and can be a bit too much too fast for the uninitiated. Carbon filters are always a must indoors, and best to make sure they’re in proper working order before running these. The Cosmic Queen reversal used for this cross was what I consider the super sativa expression of CQ. Tall, stretchy, thinner leaves, incredibly sweet resin, bag appeal, pest, and pm resistant with an elongated bud structure that is excellent for outdoors and in. Don’t miss out!
Mango Smile x Cosmic Queen F4 *Super Sativa* 70/30 Sativa/Indica 75-85 days from sprout 2-4 ounce average 3 Feminized Seeds Expect large, easy growing plants with sturdy branching and individual bud sites running their length, met with a small cola cluster at their end. This true F1 hybrid has beautiful tropical citrus flavors that will send you off on an island vacation, while the effects will leave you physically and mentally heightened and ready for anything the day throws your way! Extremely pleasant all day/everyday smoke, sure to be a crowd-pleaser. The Cosmic Queen reversal used for this cross was what I consider the super sativa expression of CQ. Tall, stretchy, thinner leaves, incredibly sweet resin, bag appeal, pest, and pm resistant with an elongated bud structure that is excellent for outdoors and in. Don’t miss out!
Forum Stomper x Cosmic Queen F4 *Quick Finish* 60/40 Sativa/Indica 65-75 days from sprout 1.5-3 ounce average 3 Feminized Seeds Expect medium-sized bushes with stout branches that reach up and form a canopy surrounding the main cola. Incredibly resinous chunky white nugs and dark forest green foliage fade to the deepest purples and blacks under cooler temperatures. She will have true F1 hybrid vigor and produce a delicious mix of forum cookies and cosmic cream flavors along with an abundance of “fall off the stalk” gland heads that will put everything else around your trimbin to shame. Effects are stoney, both physically and mentally, without the couchlock. She could easily fill the role of all day/everyday smoke if you have a decent tolerance already. For the reversal I used a stocky, faster finishing Cosmic Queen as the pollen donor which will help add vigor and potency while keeping the stretch down.
Super Orange Haze F4 X Cosmic Queen F4 *Super Sativa* 70/30 Sativa/Indica 70-80 days from sprout 1.5-3 ounce average 3 Feminized Seeds Expect medium-sized, easy growing plants with shorter side branches that reach about half the height of the main cola. Floral and sour citrus flavors with an uplifting effect that is great for early morning and afternoon indulgences. Bag appeal is also of no concern, as this true F1 hybrid has it in spades! The Cosmic Queen reversal used for this cross was what I consider the super sativa expression of CQ. Tall, stretchy, thinner leaves, incredibly sweet resin, bag appeal, pest, and pm resistant with an elongated bud structure that is excellent for outdoors and in. Don’t miss out!
Toof Decay x Cosmic Queen F4 *Quick Finish* 50/50 Sativa/Indica 65-75 days from sprout 1.5-3 ounce average 3 Feminized Seeds Expect medium-sized bushes with stout branches that almost reach the height of the main cola. Extremely dense buds covered in sweet bakery and candy-flavored resin that will leave you wanting more. Cooler temperatures can bring out some beautiful fall colors that only add to her visual appeal. Stoney without the narcotic effect, great for an afternoon delight or as a post-meal treat. For the reversal I used a stocky, faster finishing Cosmic Queen as the pollen donor which will help add vigor and potency to this true F1, while keeping the stretch down. ***Be sure to keep an eye on these during early as the Toof Decay line can throw a ball or two during sexing, right where the side branches meet the main stem. It is rare, but can be brought about by stress or too strong an application of nutes during the sexing stage and seems to be most common when using humic acid. If you do see a ball pop up it can be removed and the plant will continue on fully female to finish her life. Also, keep airflow and humidity in check during the final few weeks, as the flower density can lead to bud rot in the wrong conditions. **\*
Creme de la Soul F1 x Cosmic Queen F4 Quick Finish 50/50 Sativa/Indica 65-75 days from sprout 1.5-3 ounce average 3 Feminized Seeds Expect medium plants with stout satellite branches reaching up to the shoulders of the main colas. Dense nugs covered in oily resin ranging in smells from red berries and sneakers to creamy grapes, this F1 polyhybrid has a lot to offer! Cooler temperatures can bring on fades of reds and purples, making her an absolute beauty in her final days. She has a balanced physical and mental high, leaning towards the stoney end of the spectrum, and will make for a great evening smoke. For the reversal I used a stocky, faster finishing Cosmic Queen as the pollen donor which will help add vigor and potency while keeping the stretch down. Be sure to keep airflow and humidity in check during the final few weeks, as the flower density can lead to bud rot.
Supernatural OG x Cosmic Queen F4 Super Sativa 70/30 Sativa/Indica 75-85 days from sprout 2-4 ounce average 3 Feminized Seeds Expect large, easy growing plants with sturdy branching and individual bud sites running their length, met with a medium cola cluster at their ends, with a large main cola. This F1 poly hybrid is chock full of hazey goodness! Flavors range from effervescent lemon-lime, to heavy juniper laced gin and tonic. The juniper flavors are my personal favorite and tend to kick my ass and get me super stoney, while the citrusy ones are more motivational. There’s a variety of outstanding expressions to be found in these, all on the sativa end of the spectrum. The Cosmic Queen reversal used for this cross was what I consider the super sativa expression of CQ. Tall, stretchy, thinner leaves, incredibly sweet resin, bag appeal, pest and pm resistant with an elongated bud structure that is excellent for outdoors and in. Don’t miss out! Blessed by Hoodoo Moses I
Cosmic Apprentice (No Video)
Wizard’s Apprentice F4 x Cosmic Queen F4 Sativa 75 days from sprout "Ready to get heady? Crossing a big-bodied sativa dominant Wizard’s Apprentice to the rush inducing Cosmic Queen resulted in a whole new variety that will keep your head in the clouds! Large plants with denser buds than Cosmic Queen, an overload of frost, and nostril piercing neon sweet and hazey scents finishing right around 75 days. If you’re into uplifting sativa effects with chunkier buds then she is definitely worth checking out."
Wizard’s Apprentice F4 x Tyrone Stomper F6 Indica 70 days from sprout A long time coming, the Cheech Biggums is sure to impress! Using a heavy Cheech Wizard dominant Wizard’s Apprentice mated to the ever-impressive Tyrone Stomper will produce medium to large, extra vigorous true F1 hybrids with fruity OG gas flavors and an occasional piney/floral expression in a quick 70ish days from sprout. Picture of Post
February Drop Info
Copied from Daz's IG post.
Thank you all for your patience with me these past few weeks. I've been handling a lot of business behind the scenes in preparation for big things next year. 2020 was the year of staying off the radar with most of my big projects and not drawing any unnecessary attention. 2021 is the year of getting licensed and really showing you what it's all about! Thank you for your trust and faith in me during my overly cautious past few months/years. I won't let you down.🙏🌱🦉🌱🙏New photo to autos scheduled for the first half of 2021: Pre '98 Bubba Kush x Auto Skywalker F4 Dosidos x Forum Stomper F4 Purple Punch x Forum Stomper F4 Sunset Sherbet x Forum Stomper F4
What r/fatFIRE can learn from the book, Psychology of Money
My favorite author, Morgan Housel, released his new book, The Psychology of Money, last week. In the book, Housel discussed many interesting psychological phenomenon, through the lens of finance. As I flipped through the pages, I started to realize so much of what's happening in fatFIRE are examples of what's discussed in the book. No One's Crazy The book begins with how your personal experiences with money make up maybe 0.000000001% of what's happened in the world, but maybe 80% of how you think the world works. For example, if you were born in 1970, the S&P 500 increased almost 10-fold, adjusted for inflation, during your teens and 20s. That's an amazing return. If you were born in 1950, the market went literally nowhere in your teens and 20s adjusted for inflation. Two groups of people, separated by chance of their birth year, go through life with a completely different view on how the stock market works. Takeaways forfatFIRE: When you read other posts and comments about what stocks to buy, what startups to join, what's the economy going to be like, what's the best asset allocation, etc., remember that is just a single person's point of view. That person may be from a different generation, earns different incomes, upholds different values, keeps different jobs, and has different degrees of luck. And remember, don't be mean to others. A view about money that one group of people thinks is outrageous can make perfect sense to another. Luck & Risk The next chapter discusses the big role luck and risk plays in someone's life. Luck and risk are two sides of the same coin. Examples from the book: Countless fortunes (and mistakes) owe their outcomes to leverage. The best (and worst) managers drive their employees as hard as they can. "The customers are always right" and "customers don't know what they want" are both accepted business wisdom. The line between "inspiringly bold" and "foolishly reckless" can be a millimeter thick and only visible with hindsight. Risk and luck are doppelgängers. Takeaways forfatFIRE: Be careful who you praise and admire. That commenter who joined a unicorn at Series A may look like a genius on the outside, but they may just be lucky and cannot repeat it again. Be careful who you look down upon and wish to avoid becoming. That poster who joined WeWork may look like a fool, but they made the best decision based on the information they had at a time. They took a risk and got unlucky. Therefore, focus less on specific individuals and case studies and more on broad patterns. Furthermore, when things are going extremely well, realize it's not as good as you think -- like the stock market right now. On the other hand, we should forgive ourselves and leave room for understanding when judging failures -- like the stock market in March. Never Enough The hardest financial skill is getting the goalpost to stop moving. It gets dangerous when the taste of having more -- more money, more power, more prestige -- increases ambition faster than satisfaction. Social comparison is the problem here. A rookie baseball players who earns $500k a year envies Mike Trout who has a 12-year, $430 million contract envies a hedge fund manager who makes $340 million a year envies Warren Buffett who had a $3.5 billion increase in fortune in 2018. There are many things never worth risking, no matter the potential gain. Reputation is invaluable. Freedom and independence are invaluable. Friends and family are invaluable. Being loved by those who you want to love you is invaluable. Happiness is invaluable. And your best shot at keeping these things is knowing when it's time to stop taking risks that might harm them. Knowing when you have enough. Takeaways forfatFIRE: When you make a big gain, it's totally okay to take profit, as long as you keep your ambition down and acknowledge the possibility that it may go higher. If that happens, no need to play the would've should've could've game, because it very well might've gone the other way. When you see someone who got 20x return on Shopify or bet big into Ethereum in 2016, remember they may envy the pre-IPO employees at Shopify or the genius who held Bitcoin since 2010. At the end of the day, do not risk more than what's comfortable in your life for the sake of making huge amount of money, because even if you do make it, you may not find it worth it. Tails, You Win Skipping a few chapters to talk about the prominence of tail events. At the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting in 2013 Warren Buffet said he's owned 400 to 500 stocks during his life and made most of his money on 10 of them. Charlie Munger followed up: "If you remove just a few of Berkshire's top investments, its long-term track record is pretty average." In 2018, Amazon drove 6% of the S&P 500's returns. And Amazon's growth is almost entirely due to Prime and Amazon Web Services, which itself are tail events in a company that has experimented with hundreds of products, from the Fire Phone to travel agencies. Apple was responsible for almost 7% of the index's returns in 2018. And it is driven overwhelmingly by the iPhone, which in the world of tech products is as tail--y as tails get. And who's working at these companies? Google's hiring acceptance rate if 0.2%. Facebook's is 0.1%. Apple's is about 2%. So the people working on these tail projects that drive tail returns have tail careers. Takeaways forfatFIRE: When we pay special attention to a role model's successes we overlook that their gains came from a small percent of their actions. That makes our own failures, losses, and setbacks feel like we're doing something wrong. When you accept that tails drive everything is business, investing and finance you will realize that it's normal for lots of things to go wrong, break, fail and fall. If you are a good stock picker you'll be right maybe half the time. If you're a good business leader maybe half of your product and strategy ideas will work. If you're a good investor most years will be just OK, and plenty will be bad. If you're a good worker you'll find the right company in the right field after several attempts and trials. And that's if you're good. Freedom The highest form of wealth is the ability to wake up every morning and say "I can do whatever I want today." The ability to do what you want, when you want, with who you want, for as long as you want, is priceless. It is the highest dividend money pays. Research has shown having a strong sense of controlling one's life is a more dependable predictor of positive feelings of wellbeing than any of the objective conditions of life we have considered. People like to feel like they're in control -- in the drivers' seat. When we try to get them to do something, they feel disempowered. Rather than feeling like they made the choice, they feel like we made it for them. So they say no or do something else, even when they might have originally been happy to go along. Takeaways forfatFIRE: Most of you probably are working thought-based and decision job, your tool is your head, which never leaves you. You might be thinking about your project during your commute, as you're making dinner, while you put your kids to sleep, and when you wake up stressed at three in the morning. You might be on the clock for fewer hours than you would in 1050. But it feels like you're working 24/7. If this feels like you, and you do not like it, it is totally fine to switch to a job that pays less but gives you more freedom and independence, because freedom and independence are what FatFire is all about. --- I'm only half way into the book, but I can tell this will be one of the best finance book of 2020. If you guys find this useful, happy to come back next week with more insights once I've gotten to the end. I like talking about these things on Twitter too. Edit: here's part 2 and here's a Twitter thread of the best snippets
Why I’m Bullish on Yield Farming Ahead of the Eth 2.0 Launch
Hello everyone! I noticed that the hype around yield farming and DEX protocols kinda died down and that people focus more on NFTs and artwork-based projects like Rarible. I figured it would be great to (shortly) explain why yield farming lost its popularity and why they will have a comeback ahead of the new ETH 2.0 launch. If you’re not new here, you know how the DeFi market evolved in the past months. We had a surge of yield farming (liquidity providing) platforms that were hyped at the very beginning but lost a majority of their users real fast, sometimes only days after launching. I believe that most people were disappointed by this sort of mini speculative bubble and the fact that most projects had devs who rug pulled. Combined with the fact that Ethereum had high network congestion at several points in September and October, traders simply decided to prevent further losses and leave this niche place LP once and for all. Don’t get me wrong, there are still plenty of yield farming projects that people use and it’s not like people stopped token swapping on Uniswap or anything. Ethereum also calmed down a lot now and the average transaction costs only like what, 80 gwei? But still, I think that people are pretty much aware that if another hype cycle started, the very same pattern would repeat again. My take on this is that yield farming will regain its popularity in December around the time Ethereum 2.0 launches with its first phase and a lot of scaling solutions like Optimistic launch. If everything runs smoothly, we should have the building blocks for resuming the DeFi bull run and turning yield farming stable, rewarding, and popular once more. Sure, Ethereum is only launching a small network upgrade that will run side-by-side with the original network, so we won’t see any technical changes anytime soon. But I really believe that ETH 2.0, along with other scaling solutions, will bring back trust and show that there is indeed a bright future for blockchain-based technology ahead of us. And in that future, Proof-of-Stake and liquidity providing will be the modern mining equivalent of running a Bitcoin farm in 2011. One thing that I’m worried about is that enthusiasts, traders, and investors will still fall for the same projects that promise too much and deliver little. We saw numerous projects that were regarded as reputable in the beginning collapse within a week, like SushiSwap. But at the same time, my line of thinking is that projects that focus on development and spend minimal time on marketing will surface to the top in the end. For example, while everyone was using Uniswap to swap tokens and provide liquidity, I was doing the same exact thing but cheaper on Anyswap. It is kinda funny since people boast that they earned $1200 through the UNI airdrop but I know for a fact that they spent way more on fees. And guess what? I didn’t even break a $100 threshold in the last three months while using Anyswap. I’m not trying to bash Uniswap here, but all I’m saying is that we already have scalable solutions now but people are too scared to introduce new changes in their lives. I’m not here to market you anything. I just want to show you that even today, in October 2020, you can discover scalable and rewarding projects that simply work. Find any developer team that works all the time and doesn’t have the time to brag and you’ll know you’re on the right road! Last time I checked, the Anyswap team revealed that the average APY return for their yield farming pools ranges between 100% to 900%. When I asked my crypto friends if they know about this, I found that none of them even heard of Anyswap. DYOR and find out about the project on your own. I promise that reading about Anyswap and the blockchain it’s based on (Fusion) will be worth the time.
To sell fast and free up slots to sell other stuff
What happens when you make a cheap barter offer?
Nobody notices so it doesn't sell fast
Therefore, there's no reason to make a cheap barter offer
Actually, there's no reason to put a barter at all. You gain nothing from doing it as a barter when you can simply buy it from the flea market after selling yours in rubles. You can only buy barter offers with FiR items, and the items you get is the same as when selling as rubles. Even if the "asking value" displayed for barter is properly synced with the market, it won't matter because it will always be noticed slower by players and you gain nothing as a seller, and buyers usually gain nothing as a buyer.
As a result, only bad(expensive) offers are made.
Nikita himself knows barter is usually a scam & nobody uses it, so he actually made "remove barter offers" filter as a default option.
We need to incentivize players to use the barter function, otherwise it'll just be another feature that 99.9% of players don't use. Don't worry - even with incentives, your normal ruble based market won't see any visible impact. Don't worry - RMT issues aren't related to barter. RMT sellers buy the expensive ruble based offers/drop bitcoins in raid/do a labs raid together while using cheats/give gearsets inraid. Barter trades don't have any possibilities of being used nefariously, ESPECIALLY since item being sold as barter and item being asked in exchange BOTH have to be FIR.
Remove/drastically lower fees for barter trades - barter is already painful for sellers and buyers. Fee removal will lead to potentially cheaper barter offers, which makes the market experience more dynamic.
Make barter offers take up a separate sales slot - barter will always take longer to sell due to less visibility, less convenience for buyers, and not many will have the exact items you require ready to pay as FiR. So, having a barter offer take up a different slot so that you can still sell other items for rubles would be a nice QoL change.
Make the estimated total value of the asking item shown for barters accurate to the current flea average prices, to make actual cheaper offers obvious.
Fix the regression bug that removed item name previews on the flea list. Since couple months ago, we can no longer see what items are required for the barter unless we mouse over the "?" icon. We used to see the item names without having to mouseover it.
I feel that barter is much more "personal" and interactive than a plain ruble based transaction 24/7. I'd like to see it get expanded more as a game feature rather than some annoyance that we have to block out using "remove barter offers" from the filter every time.
I like moons, I like music. I also like burying musical references in crypto reports. First one to name the two musical references gets some moons.
Remember the panic in early Sept? Despite a tough month, the 2019 Top Ten are +54% and still well ahead of the stock market.
What's this all about? I purchased $100 of each of Top Ten Cryptos in Jan. 2019, haven't sold or traded. Did the same in 2018 and 2020. Learn more about the history and rules of the Experimentshere.
September - all cryptos in the red, so I guess Tether wins the month.
Overall since Jan. 2019 - ETH loses lead to BTC which is +189%. Only 2 out of the Top Ten in negative territory.
Combining all three three years, Top Ten cryptos underperforming S&P if I'd taken a similar approach.
Month Twenty One – UP 54%
2019 Top Ten Summary for September Although crypto recovered a bit from an early September dive, the 2019 Top Ten Portfolio ended the month completely in the red, similar to what we saw in June. Litecoin dropped out of the Top Ten this month, the first time since these Experiments began.
Question of the month:
In September, Tether moved 1 billion USDT coins from TRON to this blockchain:
A) Ethereum B) Neo C) Polkadot D) EOS Scroll down for the answer.
Ranking and September Winners and Losers
2019 Top Ten Ranking Here come the new coins: with the exception of BCH (up one place from #6 to #5) every crypto either remained in place or dropped. BSV, down one place, EOS and Tron down two, and Stellar fell three. Litecoin dropped a massive five places to land itself outside of the Top Ten, the first time since I began the Experiments back in January 2018. Due to Litecoin’s expulsion from the Top Ten, 40% of the crypotos have dropped out of the Top Ten since January 1st, 2019: Tron, Stellar, Litecoin and EOS have been replaced by BNB, DOT, ADA, and LINK. September Winners – With all cryptos in the red, stablecoin Tether outperformed the rest. BTC finished second, down -8% in September, followed by BSV, down -10%. September Losers – LTC had a truly horrible month, losing nearly a quarter of its value (-24%), falling five places in the ranking, and falling out of the Top Ten. Close behind was Stellar and ETH, down -23% and -22%. For overly competitive nerds, here is a tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and losses during the first 21 months of the 2019 Top Ten Experiment: 2019 Ws and Ls Depressingly, Tether is still far ahead with seven monthly victories, more than twice as much as second place BSV and ETH. And although BSV is up 87% since January 2019, it dominates the monthly loss count: it has now finished last in eight out of twenty-one months. Swing trade anyone? And XRP is still the only crypto that has yet to notch a win.
Overall update – BTC takes lead from ETH. Stellar now worst performing since Jan. 1st, 2019
After briefly pulling ahead of BTClast month, ETH gave up its overall lead in September. The top two are up +189% and +169% respectively followed distantly by BSV, up +87% since January 2019. The initial $100 investment in BTC is currently worth $295. Twenty-one months into the 2019 Top Ten Index Fund Experiment, 80% of the 2019 Top Ten cryptos are either flat or in the green. The other two cryptos are well in negative territory: last place Stellar (-33%) and second to last place XRP (-32%) have each lost about one third of their value since January 2019). At +54%, the 2019 Top Ten Portfolio is just behind the 2020 Top Ten Portfolio’s +56% gain and both are far, far ahead of the 2018 group (much more on that below).
Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:
Monthly total market cap, since Jan 2019 Since January 2019, the total market cap for crypto is up +176%. The overall market fell around $35B in September, ending the month around $351B. Despite the tough month, this is the second highest month-end level since the 2019 Top Ten Experiment started 21 months ago.
BitDom ticked up slightly this month, but is trending lower than the last year or so, where it had remained in the mid-60s%. As always, a low BitDom signals a greater appetite for altcoins. Zooming out, the BitDom range since the beginning of the experiment in January 2019 has been between 50%-70%.
Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2019:
The 2019 Top Ten Portfolio lost nearly $300 in September. After the initial $1000 investment, the 2019 Top Ten Crypto Portfolio is worth $1,538. That’s up about +54%. Here’s a look at the ROI over the life of the first 21 months of the 2019 Top Ten Index Fund experiment, month by month: Monthly ROI on Top Ten since Jan 2019 Unlike the completely red table you’ll see in the 2018 Top Ten Experiment, the 2019 crypto table is almost all green. The first month was the lowest point (-9%), and the highest point (+114%) was May 2019. At +54%, the 2019 Top Ten Portfolio is now the second best performing out of the three but just barely (the 2020 Top Ten is up +56%). Speaking of the other Experiments, let’s take a look at how the 2019 Top Ten Index Fund Portfolio compare to the parallel projects:
Taking the three portfolios together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line: After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my combined portfolios are worth $3,340 ($238+ $1,538 +$1,564). That’s up about +11% for the three combined portfolios, compared to +31% last month. Lost in the numbers? Here’s a table to help visualize the progress of the combined portfolios: Combined ROI on $3k over 3 years - UP +11% To sum up: 11% gain by dropping $1k once a year on whichever cryptos happened to be in the Top Ten on January 1st, 2018, 2019, and 2020. But what if I’d gone all in on only one Top Ten crypto for the past three years? While many have come and gone over the life of the experiment, only five cryptos have started in Top Ten for all three years: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, and LTC (Litecoin, no pressure, but if you’re not back in the Top Ten in the next few months, you’re out of the club). Let’s take a look at those five: ETH leading the three year club Ethereum (+104%) would have returned the most at this point, followed by BTC (+77%). On the other hand, following this approach with XRP, I would have been down -31%. Alright, that’s crypto. How does crypto compare to the stock market?
Comparison to S&P 500:
I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of the experiments to have a comparison point with traditional markets. Although the S&P fell from an all time high the month before, it is up +35% since January 2019. The initial $1k investment I put into crypto 21 months ago would be worth $1,350 had it been redirected to the S&P 500 in January 2019. +35%, not bad at all. But the 2019 Top Ten Portfolio is up +54% over the same time period. That’s 2019. But what if I took the same world’s-slowest-dollar-cost-averaging $1,000-per-year-on-January-1st crypto approach with the S&P 500? It would yield the following:
$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018 = $1260 today
$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019 = $1350 today
$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020 = $1050 today
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P: After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,660. That is up +22%since January 2018, compared to a +11% gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios. As you can see in the table below, that’s a 11% swing in favor of the S&P 500. September breaks a two month mini-streak of wins from the Top Ten crypto portfolios. S&P takes the lead in Sept.
After a strong August, both the stock and crypto markets fell in September. In a year that feels neverending, a lot can and will happen in the remaining months of 2020. Be safe and take care of each other out there. Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for the original 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment and the 2020 Top Ten Experiment.
Out of the top 20 altcoins, 2/3 performed worse than BTC in the last 3 months
Not sure if this is of interest to anyone, but I thought I'd share. In August 2017 I started with crypto and got burned thinking I was a daytrader. Burned through sats, but didn't get entirely burned in fiat because I got in before the end of year madness. Since then I've just DCA'd occasionally into BTC and ETH, and kept a tiny bit of play money for trying swing trading on alts. For those that were around during these times, we all remember alts bleeding on BOTH the up and down volatility of bitcoin. This experience made me pretty weary of alts, not just from trading, but from long term holding as projects died over the last couple years. Ultimately, everyone is hoping for a 1000x small-cap project, but the reality is that most projects have a peak and then fizzle and you have to be okay with that risk. I picked an arbitrary timeline (3 months) to check out the performance of the top 20 alts against BTC measured in sats (ignoring DOT because it's too new):
Number of alts that gained value compared to holding BTC: 7 Average gain of positives: 24% Number of alts that lost value compared to holding BTC: 13 Average loss of negatives: -27% Average if you had invested evenly across top 20: -10% For me, this has been my experience with alts. Long term holds of alts usually leads me to pain. I enjoy playing around trying to increase my sat stack with some spare cash, but in general am now sticking to BTC/ETH. Picking a winning project seems to be more luck than anything, as (in my opinion) it's more about short term hype, and most good projects STILL fade in sats as people lose interest in making a quick buck. I totally understand that I picked an arbitrary date range, but it's just food for thought, and maybe some of you guys have some interesting perspectives on how you feel about alt trading.
Wholeheartedly willing to get downvoted, but this RMT obsession has to stop.
This sub hasn't got a clue, I swear. Huge sweeping changes to the game mechanics are a terrible way to combat RMT. It's basically an admission that your anti-cheat doesn't work. Most MMOs suffer in some way from an RMT problem; WoW, Runescape, even Destiny 2 has RMT issues if you just look. Thing is, the anticheat in those games actually works worth a damn, so the entire playerbase doesn't have to suffer from endless tinkering with in-game systems. Before you hit me with 'it's a hardcore game, deal with it, it's supposed to be grindy', just stop. Just don't bother. I've heard it time and time again, and it's bullshit. You know it's bullshit just as well as I do. The changes BSG have been making recently to nerf all forms of progression only make the game 'more hardcore' for people who work full time and don't have the same amount of *time* as streamers who dedicate their entire life to this game. That's not 'hardcore'. The game's difficulty mechanically is 'hardcore' and always have been, and I love it. These changes, though, in my eyes, are just time-wasting for the sake thereof. Since when does the amount of time one has to invest in a game define how fucking hardcore it is? Would you describe WoW as more hardcore than Tarkov because of how long you have to play to progress? Or perhaps beating all three Witcher games back to back is 'hardcore' because it took a long time. Are ARMA or DCS inherently less hardcore than Tarkov because an operation can be completed in an afternoon? No, judging how hardcore a game is by the amount of time one has to invest in it is a joke. *No game* should give enormous *mechanical advantages* to those with more time on their hands. There's already an inherent skill advantage that comes from that amount of practice, designing the mechanics to also reward only those with that much time is a kick in the teeth to all the people who love this game but can't invest that level of time. And yeah, you can go ahead and say 'ummm actualllly it's a beta, so they can do what they like, stop whining', and yep. Yes, they can. You're correct. However, comma, that doesn't mean I have to pretend to like it. Yes, I did buy EoD and no, I don't regret it because of all the fun I've had til now. But suggesting people who don't like the current direction the game is going in aren't allowed to voice their opinion because the game's in beta is fucking ludicrous. What do you think the purpose of a playable beta is? Nikita is more than welcome to ignore all the people who don't like these new changes, but what gives people on this sub the right to tell me that I'm not entitled to an opinion on the product I've chosen to financially support. It's such a toxic, capital-G Gamer attitute to suggest that 'Tarkov is OUR game because we're willing to dump several full days a week into grinding for our Bitcoin farms. You should just go and play something else, this clearly isn't a game for you. Go play Call of Duty.' I shouldn't even have to express how utterly reductive and childish that is. Grow up. I'm getting HUGE red flags with the way this game is currently going, because it's all too similar to a game I used to love, The Culling. That game blew up on launch and a bunch of high profile streamers suggested changes to the game, and the devs went ahead and implemented all of them without so much as *thinking* about how they'd affect the average player. Look at where that game is now. Servers shut down, because the average player simply stopped having fun. I'm not saying BSG is even close to that bad, but this endless tinkering with mechanics for the nebulous, vague purpose of 'RMT' has to stop or I don't know if the 'little guys' are gonna stick around much longer. EDIT: I AM AWARE THAT RMT != CHEATING. But cheating is what makes RMT viable. RMTers need to keep items in supply, and to do that, they cheat. It's much more profitable. Ergo, if you stamp out cheaters, the RMT problem becomes significantly diminished. EDIT 2: u/ArxMessor makes a great point that Tarkov is an MMO and therfore should have some kind of grind. I agree. However, most MMOs use systems like weekly bounties etc to ensure even players with only maybe 10 hours a week to invest in the game can still keep up and compete. Tarkov currently rewards time investment *exponentially* which removes all possibility of catching up. EDIT 3: Yep, my DMs right now are very much confirming the things I said above about a certain subset of this community. Thanks, Gamers. EDIT 4: I get it, Destiny anti-cheat is ass. I made a mistake there, since I don't play Trials of Osiris. However, do you see Bungie making the win requirement for Trials 50 wins instead of 9 or whatever just to slow down the hackers? Of course not, because it hurts normal players more. Edit 5: My first gold! Thanks kind stranger.
$MARA + $RIOT: TA Play. Both MARA & RIOT have been in a consistent uptrend since the 7th of this month. The cryptocurrency sector as a whole has been hot, with bitcoin recently passing $13k, Jerome Powell discussing the possibility of adapting cryptocurrency in government, and paypal recently announcing the adaptation of cryptocurrency. All of these recent events have played a crucial part in the run both of these stocks have had. What I really love about the current pattern of both these stocks is how consistently the bounce off the 50-day moving average. For $MARA, we saw this bounce on both the 7th and the 16th of this months, and as of close today we are once again hitting the 50ma support level. If we stay above this $2.54 level in tomorrow’s pre-market, there is a good chance we could see this bounce again. $RIOT has almost the exact same pattern, bouncing off the 50-day moving average on both the 8th and the 19th of this month. We tested the 50ma today ($3.62/share) so if the pattern holds up, we could see a stronger up-trend going into the open tomorrow. $MARA $RIOT $CREX: TA Play. Creative Realities Inc. has had a rough couple of months, starting back on August 14th where they reported earnings which resulted in the stock tumbling for the next few weeks. We seem to have found heavy support around the $1.00 range, and we have been consolidating between $1 - $1.10 since the beginning of September. I like that the stock has fallen below the $1 support only once in the past few weeks, and it was only for a couple trading days. I like to scoop up these beaten down stocks and wait for the PR to bring them back to previous levels. Two great examples of this are $ADTX and $GRIL. Both found consolidation and popped on news. I know very little about this company, but I will be accumulating shares in my loading zone of < $1.05 and in the meantime research what might push this stock to previous highs. Swing play. Bottomed out play. Clear support zone $ISIG: Insignia Systems Inc. shares are trading higher as of yesterday after-hours, running from .80c to $1.27/share, and has continued its run this morning. The stock is running off absolutely no news, so be ready to play this like a momentum stock. Looking for scalp-able volume at open, will not enter this pre-market as it has already begun falling from its high of $1.69 this morning. Pre-Market Runner $JAKK: Today, JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (NASDAQ:JAKK) announced it will announce third quarter 2020 financial results on Monday, November 2, 2020 after the close of the stock market. The Company will also hold a teleconference and webcast to discuss the results, and may also discuss future plans and prospects. Jakks Pacific has been on a consistent downward trend since late June, but this low float stock moves quickly and sporadically with news. Looking at the 180d 4hr graph, we can see the stock began consolidating on September 1st, and for the most part the stock has stayed well above $3.75. As of October 5th, JAKK started a clear uptrend which was ironically spurred by a rogue Ryan Seacrest tweet praising the company’s toy lines. After the initial spike to nearly $6, Jakk settled and has now found support on the 50 day moving average which is quickly approaching the 200 day ma. Will be looking for an entry in the $4.20’s, I think the stock is in a good place to get a starter swing position, assuming it can hold above the 50 ma. Bottomed out + MA cross $DSS:Document Security Systems (NYSE:DSS) shares are trading higher on Monday after the company reported third-quarter EPS and sales results up from last year. Document Security Systems operates in the security and commercial printing, packaging and plastic ID markets. The company develops, markets, manufactures and sells paper and plastic products designed to protect valuable information from unauthorized scanning, copying, and digital imaging. Document Security Systems shares traded up 27.72% to $5.16 on Monday at the time of publication. The stock has a 52-week high of $15.60 and a 52-week low of $3.68. Up nearly two dollars from Monday’s open, will watch to see if the up-trend continues. https://preview.redd.it/bvfiwm80gmv51.png?width=1602&format=png&auto=webp&s=878f1a57740cd800809b282f23db92f310c8e2f9 $RCON: Incredibly similar chart to $JAKK, though the 50ma has clearly crossed through the 200ma. I personally would wait for the both moving averages to curl a bit more. During June and August the stock found a clear bottom just above $1.10. The stock did slip below these levels during most of September, but has since been on an uptrend using the 50ma as a support. I personally like the setup on JAKK better but this is also a swing opportunity. Trending up, 50ma support. Never forget to do your own DD; remember: For all you know, all the stocks that I mention here will dip 90% tomorrow; Do your own DD, I'm not some magic fairy. Trading will never come this easy to you. If all the stocks on here went up, I'd be chilling on my own Island. This is a watchlist, not a buy list.
What r/investing can learn from the book, Psychology of Money
My favorite author, Morgan Housel, released his new book, The Psychology of Money, last week. In the book, Housel discussed many interesting psychological phenomenon, through the lens of finance. As I flipped through the pages, I started to realize so much of what's happening in investing are examples of what's discussed in the book. No One's Crazy The book begins with how your personal experiences with money make up maybe 0.000000001% of what's happened in the world, but maybe 80% of how you think the world works. For example, if you were born in 1970, the S&P 500 increased almost 10-fold, adjusted for inflation, during your teens and 20s. That's an amazing return. If you were born in 1950, the market went literally nowhere in your teens and 20s adjusted for inflation. Two groups of people, separated by chance of their birth year, go through life with a completely different view on how the stock market works. Takeaways forinvesting: When you read other posts and comments about what stocks to buy, when to sell, what's likely to happen next, what's the best asset allocation, etc., remember that is just a single person's point of view. That person may be from a different generation, earns different incomes, upholds different values, keeps different jobs, and has different degrees of luck. And remember, don't be mean to others. A view about money that one group of people thinks is outrageous can make perfect sense to another. Luck & Risk The next chapter discusses the big role luck and risk plays in someone's life. Luck and risk are two sides of the same coin. Examples from the book: Countless fortunes (and mistakes) owe their outcomes to leverage. The best (and worst) managers drive their employees as hard as they can. "The customers are always right" and "customers don't know what they want" are both accepted business wisdom. The line between "inspiringly bold" and "foolishly reckless" can be a millimeter thick and only visible with hindsight. Risk and luck are doppelgängers. Takeaways forinvesting: Be careful who you praise and admire. That commenter who bought $SHOP at $30 may look like a genius on the outside, but they may just be lucky and cannot repeat it again. Be careful who you look down upon and wish to avoid becoming. That poster who put a bull argument for Luckin Coffee may look like a fool, but they made the best decision based on the information they had at a time. They took a risk and got unlucky. Therefore, focus less on specific individuals and case studies and more on broad patterns. Furthermore, when things are going extremely well, realize it's not as good as you think -- like the stock market right now. On the other hand, we should forgive ourselves and leave room for understanding when judging failures -- like the stock market in March. Never Enough The hardest financial skill is getting the goalpost to stop moving. It gets dangerous when the taste of having more -- more money, more power, more prestige -- increases ambition faster than satisfaction. Social comparison is the problem here. A rookie baseball players who earns $500k a year envies Mike Trout who has a 12-year, $430 million contract envies a hedge fund manager who makes $340 million a year envies Warren Buffett who had a $3.5 billion increase in fortune in 2018. There are many things never worth risking, no matter the potential gain. Reputation is invaluable. Freedom and independence are invaluable. Friends and family are invaluable. Being loved by those who you want to love you is invaluable. Happiness is invaluable. And your best shot at keeping these things is knowing when it's time to stop taking risks that might harm them. Knowing when you have enough. Takeaways forinvesting: When you make a big gain, it's totally okay to take profit, as long as you keep your ambition down and acknowledge the possibility that it may go higher. If that happens, no need to play the would've should've could've game, because it very well might've gone the other way. When you see someone who got 20x return on Amazon or bet big into Ethereum in 2016, remember they may envy the pre-IPO employees at Amazon or the genius who held Bitcoin since 2010. At the end of the day, do not risk more than what's comfortable in your life for the sake of making huge amount of money, because even if you do make it, you may not find it worth it. Tails, You Win Skipping a few chapters to talk about the prominence of tail events. At the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting in 2013 Warren Buffet said he's owned 400 to 500 stocks during his life and made most of his money on 10 of them. Charlie Munger followed up: "If you remove just a few of Berkshire's top investments, its long-term track record is pretty average." In 2018, Amazon drove 6% of the S&P 500's returns. And Amazon's growth is almost entirely due to Prime and Amazon Web Services, which itself are tail events in a company that has experimented with hundreds of products, from the Fire Phone to travel agencies. Apple was responsible for almost 7% of the index's returns in 2018. And it is driven overwhelmingly by the iPhone, which in the world of tech products is as tail--y as tails get. And who's working at these companies? Google's hiring acceptance rate if 0.2%. Facebook's is 0.1%. Apple's is about 2%. So the people working on these tail projects that drive tail returns have tail careers. Takeaways forinvesting: When we pay special attention to a role model's successes we overlook that their gains came from a small percent of their actions. That makes our own failures, losses, and setbacks feel like we're doing something wrong. When you accept that tails drive everything is business, investing and finance you will realize that it's normal for lots of things to go wrong, break, fail and fall. If you are a good stock picker you'll be right maybe half the time. If you're a good business leader maybe half of your product and strategy ideas will work. If you're a good investor most years will be just OK, and plenty will be bad. If you're a good worker you'll find the right company in the right field after several attempts and trials. And that's if you're good. Freedom The highest form of wealth is the ability to wake up every morning and say "I can do whatever I want today." The ability to do what you want, when you want, with who you want, for as long as you want, is priceless. It is the highest dividend money pays. Research has shown having a strong sense of controlling one's life is a more dependable predictor of positive feelings of wellbeing than any of the objective conditions of life we have considered. People like to feel like they're in control -- in the drivers' seat. When we try to get them to do something, they feel disempowered. Rather than feeling like they made the choice, they feel like we made it for them. So they say no or do something else, even when they might have originally been happy to go along. Takeaways forinvesting: If your job is a thought-based and decision job, your tool is your head, which never leaves you. You might be thinking about your project during your commute, as you're making dinner, while you put your kids to sleep, and when you wake up stressed at three in the morning. You might be on the clock for fewer hours than you would in 1050. But it feels like you're working 24/7. If this feels like you, and you do not like it, it is totally fine to switch to a job that pays less but gives you more freedom and independence, because freedom and independence are ultimate form of wealth. --- I'm only half way into the book, but I can tell this will be one of the best finance book of 2020. If you guys find this useful, happy to come back next week with more insights once I've gotten to the end.
Should you Buy Bitcoin? If you understand what it is, and where it's going; then Yes. If you don't know what it is and would sell at any sign of a 5%, 10%, 50%, or more dip; then, No.
Bitcoin is only a safe investment if you understand what it is, and how it will continue to be adopted into this world at this point in its life, regardless of the market price swings in the short term. Because only then will you never cement a loss by panic selling, and then seeing Bitcoin runaway in price while you're still out, therefore losing both your Dollar value and your Bitcoin position value. I've been in Bitcoin for over 8 years now, and have seen many friends, family, and acquaintances come into Bitcoin, and many panic sell and FUD out during a down market. Most eventually coming back after learning more about Bitcoin, but some, for some it takes a long time to return. And for an even smaller few, well they never return, or at least not yet. But in essence, Bitcoin is only a safe investment if someone understands that their amount of Bitcoin is more important than whatever dollar value it has in the short term. That all they should be focused on is acquiring more Bitcoin, and that every 5 years after a halving happens, they'll see their coins grow in value. That they'll grow in value thanks to the math of its limited 21 million total coin supply, the new coin supply getting cut in half by the halvings making a more and more or the total supply being held by hodlers every year, and that its continued adoption into the global markets will always force it to eventually go up in price because those new adopters will always have to find what price those hodlers are willing to sell, finding Bitcoins new value that hodlers are willing to sell each time that happens, regardless of the short term evaluation corrections after a parabolic runs. Corrections mind, you that on average are only 80%, leaving anyone in before a 1000% growth parabolic runs to still being up 200% as long as they bought before the parabolic run started. The .com stock fluctuations were fluctuating on averages of 99% corrections during its first 15 years of life from the '90s to the early 2000s. And the ones that survived those early days were previously the best investments in history before Bitcoin came along. So Bitcoin is holding a better correction in its early day pattern than the biggest internet companies when they started, and its returns have already broken any records they previously held. Records they'll never be able to catch up to as Bitcoin continues its path. If they don't understand this, then even if they don't leave the market, they'll panic sell every time. And for some friends I know, they'll always sell at a dip right before a parabolic run, and then FOMO back in at a new all-time high, only to experience the next correction and sell again at their break-even point. With this, losing more Bitcoin position every time, but maintaining the same initial investment point which in their eyes as a win. I have one friend who came in with 10k in 2013, and today in 2020 is still only at 10k thanks to this pattern of buying and selling. Don't get me wrong, they've been up well over 100k$ at times, but they kept panicking selling at every parabolic run's slightest dip, then buying back in at the new all-time highs, only to then sell low in a repetitive cycle until they broke even. People like that friend try to play the market, and yes while they do win sometimes, that pattern of buying and selling will almost always lead you to get rekt during times of parabolic growth, and correction. Had my friend just held his initial 10k investment in 2013, he'd be a multi-millionaire right now. It's one of the most golden rules with investing in any market. If you try to play it, eventually it will play you. Instead, just find a market on the path of growth, and longevity, and do everything you can to just increase your piece of that market's pie, no matter what the price. If it goes down in price in the short term, then just think of it like a rare Gucci purse or limited edition rare popular shoes that are being released on sale. Buy the damn discount and hold onto that shit until the market catches up with what you know and realizes it's true value. Because of all these experiences throughout the years, if I'm trying to help anyone start buying Bitcoin, I tell them to learn about it first before buying any. To learn what it is, study its history, it's adoption growth, where it can be adopted, where it is being adopted, what it's limited 21 million coin supply is, and about what the halvings mean to its long term value. How it can and will be used, how they can protect it, etc. I always want them to learn enough about it to understand why HODLing is so important, and that the only thing that matters is that they increase their Bitcoin supply. That's the safest way to win in this game. Without understanding that, then they're a financial danger to themselves if investing in Bitcoin. Not because Bitcoin is a bad investment, but because they'll be a bad investor.
There are signs that a major Bitcoin miner (who was liquidating stored Bitcoins to keep power going) has officially gone busto.
Here you see major hash decline: https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate Here you can see '1st spends' of Bitcoin https://terminal.bytetree.com/bitcoin (I can't verify the accuracy of this). I've been watching 1st spends a while, averaging like 15,000 more Bitcoins spent than mined for the last year. That's like $180 Mil. First spends can only be done by miners. Spending more than mined basically means they are spending from old blocks (like blocks that paid out 50 BTC, 25 BTC, 12.5 BTC etc). There is some bonus value to first spend coins that I don't quite understand, but basically you get 10% or 20% more than the Bitcoin value when you spend them, because they are completely untraceable or something like that. You can sort of trace Bitcoins, but it's very, very hard to trace newly mined Bitcoins until they are spent and linked up with other assets of said individual. So over the last year, someone has been liquidating these reserve Bitcoins, while hash power of Bitcoin has gone up like double from where it was and payouts have fallen in half, so mining is paying like 25% of what it was this time last year, when BTC was $10k (presuming you stay on old equipment, etc.). I could imagine a situation where a BTC bull holds these first spend coins for a long time, planning on a rapid price jump which takes a long time to materialize. And then combine that with he $3.5k Corona / Oil dip, which basically forced liquidated everyone on margin position (which Bitcoin bulls tend to do), and I could see a scenario where someone had a wonderfully huge Bitcoin position, and mining op, and then got all their free coins liquidated by margin call, and spent their '1st spend' coins to keep ops going, hoping for rapid price acceleration. This is all conjecture but I've been expecting something like this to happen. Maybe it's just a blip, and I'm totally wrong, and hash climbs back up, but if it stays down and the BTC price goes up, then I'm thinking a miner went busto, who had be applying $10's of Millions of sell pressure monthly onto the system.
Just thought I'd lay out my 10 year plan, maybe the ideas may interest somebody. I will be 40 (ish) years old - actually aiming for a kind of semi-retirement. Property for holiday lets: I have one small property with an older relative living in it who just covers the mortgage and will do until that mortgage is paid off (18 years). That's a super long-term investment and I kind of see that as an inheritance (as I won't be getting actual inheritance from parents). Property worth approx £160k currently. I have one property which is let out as a holiday cottage. After all expenses, including the management, of it I am averaging £1000 profit per month, I don't really put in any time into the running of this. The plan is to get at least another 2 holiday lets which will hopefully bring in similar profit. This could be a very easy semi-retirement gig managing these. I found a property nearby recently for £600k which was a large house with 5 small one-bedroom holiday apartments attached - this would be perfect! I would have cleaners working them, maybe a management firm running it. Cryptocurrency: (dollar cost averaging) Bitcoin - The most decentralised and adopted crypto, it looks like it's won the race. Monero - massively undervalued privacy coin, it's pretty much the only coin currently used on dark web markets (good indicator for future adoption). Ethereum - Bit of a gamble, but looks promising. On release of ETH 2.0 they will offer a 6% annual interest on your holdings if you 'stake' it. I honestly believe the cryptocurrency market could increase X 50 in the next 10 years, it is a hedge against all the money printing which is going on. IF it goes 50X then my holdings should buy me the previously mentioned house with holiday lets. Stocks/commodities etc: (dollar cost averaging) I hold some Gold ETFs, but am currently sat out of stocks. Gold is a good hedge investment. I plan to DCA into a REIT (real estate investment trust which often give 8-12% returns)). Pensions: I may have some measly amount in a military pension (9 years service) - probably £50 per month by the time I reach it (67 years old). I'm not wasting my time with pensions, the state pension is a giant ponzi scheme as far as I'm concerned and I don't trust other people enough with my money to play with it in a private pension pot. I've literally just joined this group and have noticed it's pension heavy so maybe I'll be swayed a bit. Just to give an idea of roughly what I can dollar cost average - I can save approx £2k per month at the moment (work abroad). I'll keep a bit of cash but will mostly be DCA'ing into crypto, gold and a REIT. Cash is only going to be worth less and less each year! So not to waste money:
Won't have flashy car - something cheap and works
Buy all my furnishings etc second hand (gumtree/marketplace) No shopping in Next or Ikea
No takeaways, limit meals out
Pay off credit cards every month
Don't have kids, don't get married
All the obvious smart money management.
Hopefully I will be able to sit back in 10 years with some holiday lets under the belt bringing in a few quid and I can spend the winters somewhere sunny.
I think we have reached the moment where “not your keys, not your coins” is more important than ever.
You have all heard about Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy gobbling up 38,250 bitcoin for $425 million. This MicroStrategy event will be looked back upon as “the shot fired from the starting pistol” marking a new beginning, a new race into bitcoin from an unprecedented wave of institutional and corporate adoption. These new adopters are not average joe’s. These people are entering the game with a level of sophisticated power that we simple plebs and humble sat stackers simply cannot compete with. However, we have ONE single sure-fire way to protect ourselves. That is, get your coins off of the exchanges and into your own self custody… NOW. With this new influx of powerful people, there will be many more critical eyes looking into all the nooks and crannies of the bitcoin space, to ensure they will benefit from bitcoin for their own self interests. (This is good.) The big players want a 21 million hard cap and “number go up” just as much as you do. They do not want fractional reserve and rehypothecation. They will hire professional watchdogs in the private sector and they will push regulation in the public sector to ensure that bitcoins fundamentals will not be compromised. If/when some exchange or custodian is ousted for having some bitcoin fractional reserves or some other form of malpractice results in lost bitcoin (intentional or unintentional) you can be certain that the big boys with their teams of lawyers and executive institutional relationships will be catered to first. They will be protected, meanwhile we will be lucky to get any scraps once the dust settles. They will receive special treatment that we cannot expect the luxury of. The exchanges won’t care about you. Your losses are a simple calculation that they have already planned to write off and move on from. You will not have the funds or the power to fight them and recover your losses. If you have any amount of bitcoin on any exchange that you care about and you are reading these words right now… I implore you to take the time now to think all of this through and take good decisive actions very soon. Your bitcoin can only be taken from you if you do not control your keys. Win this war now by avoiding the battle altogether. Take custody of your bitcoin while you still can.
Finally got around to messing around with python-bitcoinlib, and I'm very impressed. Great work by Peter Todd. I went ahead and cooked up a sample based off of the ones provided to test OP_HODL. This is bitcoin contract that can lock funds in a UTXO until a specified time has arrived.
This script will lock funds in a UTXO until "10/13/2020 @ 6:55am (UTC)". Though realistically you really need to wait about an hour past your expiry time since the nLockTime logic uses that average of the last 11 blocks as a clock, not the last block. Here's a breakdown:
First look at the witness program on the spending txn. If we add the deserialize the witnessScript this is what we get: < OP_CHECKLOCKTIMEVERIFY OP_DROP OP_CHECKSIG> Looking at the 2nd output of the funding txn, you should see the ScriptPubKey is simply OP_0 to signal segwit and the hash of the witness script. OP_0 And of course, our nLockTime in our spending TXN matches our expiry, and our sequence in our spending txn is encoded to allow nLockTime processing. One thing that was interesting with nLockTime txns is that they are completely invalid before they "ripen". You can't even store them in your wallet. You just have to wait to broadcast until the right time transpires. Broadcasting early will fail with a non-final error. The CoinBin wallet is the only one I know of that allows you to create OP_HODL addresses, but I'm not certain they provide a way to spend them.
Because you become one who understands that the entire core of the power structure of our society today is rotten through and through. You understand this corruption stems from the fact that since the 70s it's been based on a debt based fiat currency which gives the hands of a few absolute power to create infinite supply of this currency that we sell our time, labor and goods for every second of every day. You also realize that if we can change that core to one where it's based on a non governmental /non corporate controlled hard asset that is the world's first truly finite asset that the people of the world get to decide on the value (supply) that we can take the next step in human evolution and create a world that rather than the current fiat masters, that we all collectively decide what our time is worth and not the other way around. You realize that it is truly possible to achieve this but that the only way to do so is to take physical possession of your private keys away from any custodial solution as you understand that possession is 10/ 10ths of the law with bitcoin and every Satoshi counts. You then become one of us. One who regardless of what the current fiat currency value stamped on these banker backed exchanges is that you dollar cost average every time you get any extra money. You do it because you want a better future not only for yourself, but also your family and friends. You see it can happen as more and more people do just what you've done and you have your faith in humanity restored even in the darkest days. Welcome to the people's peaceful revolution that is Bitcoin!
Edit: Currently writing a new version of this, dont know when it will be done. Edit: Since first post I have updated a few sections with additional information. I recommend reading it all even if it is very long, I might have placed some relevant info in different sections while thinking about what else needed to be added, plenty of steps remains mostly the same except when I comment directly on it. It is not necessary to do 100% security all the time, unless you absolutely need it, combining some high and some lower security ideas for a balance of security and convenience is useful. I will base this mostly on Windows, Linux users probably know this, and I have no idea how apple machines work (tho many things in here are still relevant for other operating systems, as they are just general tips) Disclaimer: There are certainly other steps that can make you more anonymous or safer, however I think for most people this will surfice. Any software I recommend should be independently verified for security, and examples of software are not to be taken as endorsements. I simply use examples and give recommendations when I believe it necessary, or helpful. I will not really differentiate between anonymity and security, they are often the same thing. As such the word security can mean either more anonymous, less vulnerable, or both. -------- Everyday Simple Info Sec:
Password for the device is an obvious one (8+ characters minimum, best if over +12), if there is sensitive information on any of the drives, either encrypt the entire drive or just the sensitive files, and make encrypted backups on a different memory storage device (There many programs to encrypt files and drives I'm sure a search will figure it out)
-There could be a hidden administrator user on your PC, make sure to change its password
Always use the device on a non admin account
a VPN that doesn't log (use with kill switch on, should be enough for everyday stuff, more safe stuff in the high security section) (VPNs that claim they don't log sometimes do, it's bad, but I would like to point out that not using a VPN will always expose your traffic to your ISP and also remove additional encryption. Even if the VPN tracks, there is no downside because your ISP would track anyways, and VPNs can be more anonymous, and also add extra encryption)
disable location tracking (preferably make all your privacy setting to release minimal info, get rid or cortana, change privacy settings in all of your accounts as well, there's no reason why you should allow Facebook to give you target ads. Use the setting they give you.
TOR, Firefox or similar browser, stay the fuck away from Google Chrome.
your preferred search engine should be duckduckgo (other privacy focused search engines exist as well)
use an adblocker that also prevents the adding of tacking cookies
Use pgp with all your friends or messaging services that implemented end to end encryption (Implemented services can still be bypassed, but are way more convenient so for everyday use they should suffice, some examples should be Telegraph, Signal, WhatsApp etc) (more info on pgp in high security section)
(Snapchat msgs, reddit dms, discord msgs, are just a few examples of msgs that are never encrypted) -Any info even send in encrypted msgs (and obviously non encrypted) should still be kept with possible deniability, don't say "I'm gonna do MDMA", say "I'm going out with molly."
use software (like ccleaner) that purges cookies and other data after every use, before shutting down your device
use a virus scanner daily (I like spy bot Search and destroy, many other options also exist)
never use the same password/passphrase twice (I will address what passphrase are below) (Better yet use randomized passwords that are stored in a master key chain, make them as long as possible (tho it is okay to go with the minimum of 12 never go below 7, I recommend 15+ depending on how often you have to manually enter the password instead of copying/pasting it) Don't generate too long keys for things you need to access regularly without copy/paste, except your master key ring)
its ideal to never use the same email or username as well, especially username, email is obviously tricky and also very annoying, but it would be best to always change the email.
-DO NOT STORE ANY PASSWORDS ON GOOGLE, IF GOOGLE LOGIN IS AUTHENTICATED IT WILL AUTFILL ALL PASSWORDS IT HAS SAVED (same with other similar services) (This means if you are logged in to chrome and someone has access to your machine, they can auto fill passwords without entering a single password) -use a rememberable passphrase, especially for your master key ring aka password manager A long sentence that is memorable makes an okay password (decent example,: "I met my wife at Little Ceasers for the first time on 07/09/20" better even if it's just something you know, if its impersonal, and if you can add special characters or numbers that you won't forget) (A better example for a passphrase is: "There is 0nly 0ne letter that d0esn’t appear in any U.S. state nameQ")
for your main password manager(key ring), I highly recommend Keepass 2, make backups of the file save to separate devices and drives (Flash drives, phone, PC, laptop, etc, if you loose that file, you lose all of your passwords) (Other good password managers exist as well, I don't recommend online password managers as you lose the control over passwords)
-Purge your internet activity frequently, there's a reason why I only have one post, and a few comments appearing in my account, but thousands of kama. Exposing information needlessly is not good. -Never post private information publicly, and if you do, do it vaguely as possible. (Example: Not "I'm 15", say "I'm a teenager") Do not post any vital information ever, no birthdays, mother's maiden name, age, or anything you have ever seen in a security question. Never post your current activities while they are ongoing. You going on a vacation? Don't announce it to the world, taking picture there? Post them when you are home.
Any account that is supposed to remain anonymous and as secure as possible should only be used on secured devices. A unsecured device can link you to the account.
always shutdown your machine when leaving it (To prevent access, and to prevent a possible attack vector)
2 factor factor authentication is not great anymore. Unless you can do it over a anonymous source. A cell phone is usually directly connected to you, so it is not a anonymous device. There might still be secure/anonymous 2 factor authentication methods that won't expose you, for example over a secure email. (If there is 2FA that doesn't need a device that removes anonymity and is secure, use it.) (Please don't misunderstand, 2FA is great, however it can remove the anonymity that you worked hard to establish)
-Rethink how you do security questions. Many answers to security questions can be found in your internet history. One could use the first word of the security question as an answer, or a different sceme that will mean you always remember it. (Security question need to go, the amount of personal info an average person puts on the internet makes it easy to attack anything using security question) -------_ High level crimimal information security: The motto here is, "All the Security, All the Time" As one fuck up can end with you leaving a lick of traceability, and you could be fucked. Pre Note: All of your software should always be up to date. Also even perfect info sec does not guarantee you are completely safe, a new zero day (exploit) can still fuck you, but good info security makes you significantly safer, by eliminating as many attacks as possible. -Get a new device (or make a already owned device seem like you never owned it, do this only if you know how to, there's a lot of stuff that goes into that, like changing your mac adress etc) buy with cash, and your face covered, preferably far away from where you live. (Do I need to specify to not bring your phone or anything else that tracks your location to anywhere you want to go anonymously?) (Be aware that even hardware can have vulnerabilities, many cpus have known vulnerabilities, I can't list them all, do some research before buying)
Do not EVER use a high security device at any lower level of security. There are unique identifiers to your device, exposing them once can expose you for everything you do.
-If you know how to use Tails (A linux distro designed for Info sec) use that, preferably on a USB. (Or learn how to use tails, its better, but complicated) Otherwise a clean copy of windows (make sure its not in any way associated with you) can do the job too, tho not as well. (Using a VM might give extra security, since VMs usually erase all data and RAM they were using on shutdown) -Get a non tracking VPN, Enable the kill switch (a setting that disables all traffic that doesn't go through the VPN) (change your firewall settings to only allow the traffic from the VPN, windows guide (Change settings so only traffic from the tor application is send) Edit: (Due to complaints: do not use vpn over tor, use tor over vpn. tor over vpn has no notable downside, if the VPN logs it makes no difference, your ISP will always log anyways, and vpns remove other attack vectors and also provide backup security should tor fail. Again even if the VPN tracks you only change the people doing the tracking, but now you are further removed making it more anonymous and also with less vulnerabilities) -rember privacy settings, cookie cleaner, and antivirus, password (There could be a hidden administrator user on your PC, make sure to change its password) -Always use the device on a non admin account
-Ideally use this device only on networks that are not connected with you. Such as public networks (try to never use the same public networks twice, move around) (a home network should be fine now, as it should never be exposed, but more security is always better) (Its just a conveniences vs security trade) -Never use accounts that have been exposed to lower security on higher security machines -your browser is now TOR (or your preferred security focused browser, if you dont plan on using onion ) Make sure you get the standalone version of tor not the addon build (the standalone is safer, because there are less settings and options to tweak) -Change your tor settings, to safest mode, enable a bridge (to my knowledge there's no difference in security between the build in bridges in tor), enable automatic updates, set duckduckgo onion as your primary browser. Set dark.fail onion page as your home page. (Or your preferred privacy search engine and onion directory)
set up a new pgp (can't use the same one you use for regular use, again less safer accounts are never used on safer devices) Cleopatra is my choice, its simple to use. Make sure you back up the private key multiple times, on safe devices. (Dont let the private key fall into anyone's hands) Give it a generic name like "HighSecurityPGP" do not give the pgp key pair a name that could identify you. (No initials etc) (Some pgp key pair programs want an associated email for a key pair, you can create a safe email, or which I recoend you can use a different program (like Cleopatra) (Feds & LEOs are known to copy private keys if they have your machine, so you will need to set up a new key pair if they ever take a device with a private key copy)
a high security machine that facilitates criminal activity can not use many programs. Many programs collect your devices mac adress, which is a unique identifier, amongst other things. It's should be used only for the activity you want to do.
-------_ How to use dark net markets (DNMs) If you finished your High Security setup, we can dive right in. Otherwise go do that. This is where all that is essential. Quick info on Tor, and onion sites. There is no search engine. It's all based of directories and addresses you are given by others. Tor will likely not be very quick, it has to pass through multiple networks to get to the destination. DNMs sometimes exit scam, an exit scam is when a market shuts down completely and takes all the money, this is a risk when using DNMs, it's not too common but happens maybe 0-4 times a year. The admins of thoese servers need to get out at some point, before they get jailed, so they exit the game, and scam everyone out of their money. -A very useful onion directory is dark.fail it has a lot of links, for all kinds of stuff. News, email, DNMs, Psychonautwiki (harm reduction website), forums etc. (Other directories also exist) -Pick a market, preferably one that handles secure connection server side instead of requiring you to establish the secure connection. Then create an account. Your account once created should include an entry box in your profile for a pgp key, post your PUBLIC key in there. (Verify the link is not a scam, most markets should provide a pgp signature) -Next is currency setup. All major cryptocurrency exchangers can be used, I can recommend coin base but there could be better ones out there. Unless you find a small non U.S., exchange, they will always ask for your identity. So unless you can find a trustworthy exchange that doesn't ID, you will need to give it to them. (Side note, all major crypto exchangers report to the IRS, if the IRS asks you if you bought cryptocurrency and you bought while having IDed yourself SAY YES, DO NOT COMMIT TAX FRAUD WHEN THEY KNOW YOU DID)
I recommend using Monero, it's hard to track, so it makes your job a lot easier. (If you use bitcoin you should run it through a scrambler, because BTC is tracable to anyone who knows what they are doing)
-Transfer (monero you can send directly, btc you should scramble) to your wallet. There are two options a cold wallet (physical) or a software wallet. Software wallets usually dont cost anything so I recommend them, even if often less safe. Electrum is easy to use, and pretty safe. You can also do your own research and find a wallet that fits your needs.
decide where you want to ship it. You can send to your home, to a PO box, to a PO box that you opened with a fake ID (I don't recommend), an abandoned house, general mail (sending to a post office instead of a street adress) pickup up with fake ID, use a remailing service. These are some options, sending it to your own home, isn't ideal, but its pretty much the only easy way.
-now you are ready to buy, only buy using escrow (it means the money is held by the market as a middle man until the product is delivered, they will also handle any issues like wrong quantity, cuts, etc), judge the reviews for a product, and if available look at the history of the vendor, until you find a product from a vendor you trust. (I recommend to buy within your country as much as possible, so it doesn't go through customs, it's very rare that something is found, but it can happen) -now you get to buy, depending on market, you either have cryptocurrency stored in their wallets (not recommend, you will lose it in an exit scam) or you can send it every order. When you send your delivery adress (or the one you want it to go to) encrypt the adress using the sellers public key. Make sure the adress is correct. -wait for the product, make sure to extend the escrow until the product arrives, if you can't extend it anymore dispute the order, and a moderator will step in -test the product, use it, and leave a review. PLEASE LEAVE A REVIEW, DNMs only work because of reviews. Edit: Didn't imagine I would write over 15000 words. Oh well, it was fun. Hope it helps, if you have any questions feel free to ask. No idea how long this will stay up, I might purge it in 7 days, or never.
Minimum Viable Issuance - Why Ethereum’s lack of a hard cap on ETH issuance is a good thing.
This post will explain how the argument used by the average Bitcoin maximalist, thinking that they have found Ethereum’s achilles heel when talking about issuance is actually highlighting one of Ethereum’s strong points and one of the main threats to the longevity of the Bitcoin network. So first let’s answer the question which I know many people have about Ethereum:
What is Ethereum’s ETH issuance schedule?
Ethereum has an issuance policy of Minimum Viable Issuance. So what does this mean exactly? It means that the issuance of ETH will be as low as possible while also maintaining a sufficient budget to pay miners (and soon to be stakers) to keep the network secure. For example, if ETH issuance was halved, miners would drop off the network and stop mining as it is no longer profitable for them to mine. As a result, the network would be less secure as it would cost less money for an attacker to control 51% of the hash power and attack the network. This means that the Ethereum community plans to change ETH issuance as time goes on to maintain a reasonable security budget which will keep the network secure but will also keep inflation in check. We have done this twice in the past with EIP-649 and EIP-1234 which reduced block rewards from 5 ETH per block to 3 ETH and from 3 ETH to 2 ETH respectively. I previously made a graph of ETH issuance over time here: https://redd.it/it8ce7 So while Ethereum doesn’t have a strictly defined issuance schedule, the community will reject any proposals which either put the security of the network at risk such as the recent EIP-2878, or we will reject proposals which will lead to excessive network security and therefore an unnecessarily high inflation rate (or we will accept proposals which reduce issuance after price rises and therefore the security budget rises). This means that when Bitcoiners accuse the Ethereum Foundation of being no better than a central bank because they can “print more Ether”, this is completely untrue. Any proposals made by the EF which would increase issuance unnecessarily would be rejected by the community in the same way that a proposal to increase the supply of Bitcoin from 21 million to 22 million would be rejected. There is a social contract around both Bitcoin’s and Ethereum’s issuance schedules. Any networks or proposals which break the social contracts of 21 million Bitcoins and minimal viable issuance of Ether would be a breach of these contracts and the new proposed network would be labeled by the community as illegitimate and the original network would live on.
So why is minimum viable issuance better than a hard cap?
Minimum viable issuance is better than a hard cap because it puts the most important part of the network first - the security. MVI ensures that the Ethereum network will always have a security budget which keeps the cost of a 51% attack impractically high. Bitcoin on the other hand, halves its security budget every 4 years until eventually only the transaction fees pay for network security. This means that every 4 years, the amount of money paying for network security halves until eventually, the value of attacking the network becomes greater than the security budget and someone performs a 51% attack (technically the security budget only halves if terms of BTC not in dollars. However, even if the price of Bitcoin more than doubles in the time that the security budget halves, the ratio of security budget to value secured on the network still halves, doubling the financial viability of performing a network attack). The strategy to pay for the security budget once Bitcoin issuance stops is for transaction fees to secure the network since transaction fees are paid to miners. Not only does this have its own security problems which I won’t detail here, but unless Bitcoin scales on layer 1 (layer 2 scaling solutions have their own security mechanisms separate from L1), then fees would have to cost well in the thousands of dollars to secure a trillion dollar market cap Bitcoin that is secured by nothing but fees. If Bitcoin maximalists want a 10 trillion or 100 trillion dollar market cap then expect fees to go up another 10 or 100 times from there. Ethereum on the other hand, will be able to keep its network secure with approximately 1-2% annual issuance being paid to stakers under ETH 2.0. This is because not all of the network will be staking, so if 33 million of the approximately 110 million Ether in existence stakes under ETH 2.0, then paying this 33 million Ether 6% a year (a very decent yield!) would cost just under 2 million ETH per year which would equate to less than 2% annual ETH inflation. This is also before considering EIP-1559 which will burn a portion of transaction fees which will counter the effect of this inflation and potentially even make ETH deflationary if the sum of all burned transaction fees are greater than the annual inflation. Also, under ETH 2.0, an attacker performing a 51% attack would get his funds slashed (they would lose their funds) if they attack the network, meaning that they can only perform a 51% attack once. However, in Bitcoin, anyone who controls 51% of the mining hash power could perform multiple 51% attacks without losing everything like they could in ETH 2.0. So in conclusion, while Ethereum doesn’t have the guaranteed anti-inflation security of a hard cap, it does have the guarantee of always paying it’s miners (or stakers under ETH 2.0) enough to keep the network secure. In contrast, while Bitcoin’s social contract may guarantee a hard cap of 21 million, it cannot simultaneously guarantee network security in the long run. Eventually, its users will have to decide if they want a secure network with more than 21 million coins or a tax to pay for security or an insecure network with super high fees and a hard cap of 21 million Bitcoin. Disclaimer:The details I covered around 51% attacks and network security are simplified. I am not an expert in this field and things are a lot more nuanced than I laid out in my simplifications above.
Average Confirmation Time The average time for a transaction with miner fees to be included in a mined block and added to the public ledger. 30 Days 60 Days 180 Days 1 Year 3 Years All Time Raw Values 7 Day Average 30 Day Average The average Bitcoin transaction fees are another metric that has been continuously declining since its May highs. Average Bitcoin Transaction Fees. Source: Blockchain.com Similarly to the required confirmation time, the average fees in USD per transaction reached its yearly high just days after the halving amounting to $6.6 at the time. The difficulty determines the average number of hashes needed to mine one block. A minimum difficulty of 1 corresponds to 2^32 = 4.3e9 hashes, so we need an average of 4.6e11 * 4.3e9 = 2.0e21 hashes to mine a block. (More precisely, each hash performed has a probability of 1 in 2.0e21 of successfully creating a block.) Average Bitcoin Transaction Fees. Source: Blockchain.com. Similarly to the required confirmation time, the average fees in USD per transaction reached its yearly high just days after the halving amounting to $6.6 at the time.. Less than a month later, the fees have dropped to $0.55, registering a considerable decrease of nearly 92%. The average confirmation time for a Bitcoin transaction was 9.2 minutes in September 2020. This is much lower than the May 2019 peak of over 12 minutes. The effect of the longer transaction time ...
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