Bitcoin (BTC) statistics - Price, Blocks Count, Difficulty ...

NightOwl Halloween Drop: Descriptions, Info, FAQ and Tips

This will be the last I'll post in-regards to NightOwl drops.From now on drop info will be posted in the NightOwlseeds subreddit
We can only pin 2 posts at a time, and it can get confusing for new and existing users.
I will be updating this thread throughout the day, check last edited.- NightOwl subreddit linked,

THE NIGHTOWL STORE IS CLOSED.

Link to The Seed Bazaar

F.A.Q

"My pack has a blank label, how do I know what I have?"

Those are the "Secret Owl Society" packs, they come labeled with UV ink. Daz almost always provides a small blacklight keychain, use it to reveal the pack name.

"Can I make multiple orders and get the tester pack?"

As long as the combined total is $250, and hasn't been shipped yet, then you get 1 tester pack ($500 for 2 tester packs).
A new bit of info, you get another tester pack per $250 spent, dealer's choice.

"Do I need to purchase on TSB Premium?

No, go to the regular store page

"Do I need TSB Premium to make a purchase?"

No, you don't need TSB Premium to make a purchase. This was an option for paying members to get a chance to access the drop early. Nothing was exclusive to premium, everyone has access to all the strains.

"I got a confirmation email, it still says "processing", should I be worried?"

As long as you have a confirmation email (maybe a paid email), then there's nothing to worry about your order has been received.

"How do I register for a free account?"

There should be a sign-in button at the bottom of the page, or the NightOwl Store page. Look at this image to help.

"Is there any freebies?"

Like Mephisto, Nightowl will give you 2 extra seeds on 3 seed pack orders. Same cultivar. No freebie tiers like Mephisto.

Order related issue?

Email [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
I will update with more FAQs as the day goes.

DROP DAY INFO NOW PAST

When purchasing NightOwl seeds from The Seed Bazaar on 10/10 at 12 AM, WHATEVER IS IN YOUR CART, ISN'T RESERVED.
NEW TIPS
ITEMS ARE ADDED/UPDATED ONE BY ONE.
THERE ARE TWO PAGES OF SEEDS.
IF YOU HAVE AN ISSUE WITH YOUR ORDER EMAIL [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
PREMIUM ISN'T NECESSARY.
It's best to purchase what you want FAST, everything is and always has been limited in quantity. Don't leave the item(s) in your cart and go check your plants and start some LST or a res change, don't go start cleaning your tent, CHECK YOUR ITEMS OUT FAST.
Orders usually are combined to help with shipping, this should help with ordering fast, and comments have been enabled at checkout too 👍.
Last tip, make an account ahead of time, and login. Should help speed up the checkout process.
Price per pack is $50 USD. Website and packaging say 3 seeds but typically get 5 no option for other pack sizes, plus free international shipping.
This is the LAST SCHEDULED DROP from NightOwl till Valentine's day, which is expected to have the new F4 photo to auto cultivars. This is if there aren't any delays or setbacks in the timeline.
The new NightOwl Sweater doesn't have a set date yet, could be some time in November.
Chocolates are for the US only, food and customs don't go together. I THINK Daz said put it in the comments if you'd like the chocolate and he'd get back to you to figure out how to ship it (might have to pay for packaging and postage).
Only If there are chocolates or ashtrays left, Daz will offer them up as an item on the seed bazaar for the cost of shipping which is usually around $15.
Seedopoly boards are being sent out, pieces won't go out till the New Year, and the prizes are US only.

Promotion:

Tester packs are labeled, but unknown till you receive it.

Scratch Card Game

Match the Mummies, scratch card game *WHILE SUPPLIES LAST, 1st COME 1st SERVED\*

Descriptions (Quick Description from Daz)

Limited Edition:

Galaxy Brain 1:30:00

Zamaldelica Express x Cosmic Queen
75/25 Sativa/Indica
75-80 days from sprout
A long time coming, the Galaxy Brain is finally here! These large, branchy plants are covered with frost from the stems up! Piercingly sweet fruit scents and mouth coating flavors accompany a soaring euphoric head high, along with a relaxing body effect that doesn’t hamper your daily activities. I’m expecting this one to become a staple in the autoflower connoisseur’s garden. The reversal used was selected from over 40 Cosmic Queens and was extremely sativa dominant. I used this same expression for an unreleased seed run a few years back and she produced some of the most exquisitely beautiful and flavorful flowers. The female used was extremely pungent, with sappy and bulbous resin heads that stink up the whole room when burst. She also had extremely fat calyxes, providing massive amounts of surface area for the resin heads to call home.

Spotless Mind 1:39:00

Fugue State x Cosmic Queen
True F1 Hybrid Limited Edition
75/25 Sativa/Indica
75-85 days from sprout
2-4 ounces average
3 Feminized Seeds
Large, easy growing sativa dominant plants with heavy branching and intense crystal production. Super sweet, peppery, and buttery flavors accompany an intensely uplifting head high and an electrically charged body feel. The Spotless Mind name gives a tip of the cap to the Amnesia Haze in her heritage, which carries through to this cross. Overindulge and you will find yourself becoming forgetful and may experience recollection difficulties, but in a fun way. She has also been known to encourage bedroom activities, making for a nice nightstand stash. If you are looking for an anytime sativa that won’t make your mind race aimlessly, look no further. The same reversal that was used for Galaxy Brain and Cosmic Apprentice was also used for this Limited Edition.

Secret Owl Society:

Electric Qoolaid 1:32:18

Blue Microverse F4 x Cosmic Queen F4 *Quick Finish*
50/50 Sativa/Indica
65-75 days from sprout
1.5-3 ounce average
3 Feminized Seeds
Expect medium to large plants with creamy blue raspberry lemonade golf ball buds running along the side branches, leading up to chunky top colas all wrapped in gooey, long-stemmed trichomes. Another beautiful true F1 hybrid with a 50/50 blend for a balanced, comforting mind and body experience. Great for relaxing after work when you’re ready to start winding down. For the reversal I used a stocky, faster finishing Cosmic Queen as the pollen donor which will help add vigor and potency while keeping the stretch down.
**Be sure to keep airflow and humidity in check during the final few weeks, as the flower density can lead to bud rot in the wrong conditions. **

Judy Gemstone 1:32:44

Strawberry Nuggets F4 x Cosmic Queen F4 *Quick Finish*
40/60 Sativa/Indica
65-75 days from sprout
1.5-3 ounce average
3 Feminized Seeds
Expect medium-sized bushes with very sturdy branches that reach up and fill the canopy alongside the main cola. Rock hard nugs of pinks, purples, emerald, and blue hues will create all the bag appeal you could ask for, with a sweet cheesy strawberry funk that will have you smelling the bag again and again. Another true F1 and the heaviest indica hybrid of the lot, ranging from therapeutic to narcotic depending on your intake. Perfect for a dessert smoke or nightcap to relax your body before sailing off into the dream world. For the reversal I used a stocky, faster finishing Cosmic Queen as the pollen donor which will help add vigor and potency while keeping the stretch down.
***Be sure to keep an eye on these during early as the Strawberry Nuggets line can throw a ball or two during sexing, right where the side branches meet the main stem. It is rare, but can be brought about by stress or too strong an application of nutes during the sexing stage and seems to be most common when using humic acid. If you do see a ball pop up it can be removed and the plant will continue on fully female to finish her life. Also, keep airflow and humidity in check during the final few weeks, as the flower density can lead to bud rot in the wrong conditions. **\*

Karmic Connection 1:33:03

(Chem City Blues x Chemdogging) X Cosmic Queen F4 *Super Sativa*
60/40 Sativa/Indica
75-85 days from sprout
2-4 ounce average
3 Feminized Seeds
Expect large, easy growing plants with satellite branches that reach up to the shoulders of the canopy, but be sure to stake her before she goes too far into flower or she will buckle under the weight of her blooms. The piercing old school perfumes she puts off range from skunky blueberries to creamy chems, and her soda can cola structure is sure to impress! This F1 polyhybrid is recommended for heavier smokers and those looking for help with pain management, and can be a bit too much too fast for the uninitiated. Carbon filters are always a must indoors, and best to make sure they’re in proper working order before running these. The Cosmic Queen reversal used for this cross was what I consider the super sativa expression of CQ. Tall, stretchy, thinner leaves, incredibly sweet resin, bag appeal, pest, and pm resistant with an elongated bud structure that is excellent for outdoors and in. Don’t miss out!

Mango Sunrise 1:34:28

Mango Smile x Cosmic Queen F4 *Super Sativa*
70/30 Sativa/Indica
75-85 days from sprout
2-4 ounce average
3 Feminized Seeds
Expect large, easy growing plants with sturdy branching and individual bud sites running their length, met with a small cola cluster at their end. This true F1 hybrid has beautiful tropical citrus flavors that will send you off on an island vacation, while the effects will leave you physically and mentally heightened and ready for anything the day throws your way! Extremely pleasant all day/everyday smoke, sure to be a crowd-pleaser. The Cosmic Queen reversal used for this cross was what I consider the super sativa expression of CQ. Tall, stretchy, thinner leaves, incredibly sweet resin, bag appeal, pest, and pm resistant with an elongated bud structure that is excellent for outdoors and in. Don’t miss out!

Milk and Qookies 1:35:15

Forum Stomper x Cosmic Queen F4 *Quick Finish*
60/40 Sativa/Indica
65-75 days from sprout
1.5-3 ounce average
3 Feminized Seeds
Expect medium-sized bushes with stout branches that reach up and form a canopy surrounding the main cola. Incredibly resinous chunky white nugs and dark forest green foliage fade to the deepest purples and blacks under cooler temperatures. She will have true F1 hybrid vigor and produce a delicious mix of forum cookies and cosmic cream flavors along with an abundance of “fall off the stalk” gland heads that will put everything else around your trimbin to shame. Effects are stoney, both physically and mentally, without the couchlock. She could easily fill the role of all day/everyday smoke if you have a decent tolerance already. For the reversal I used a stocky, faster finishing Cosmic Queen as the pollen donor which will help add vigor and potency while keeping the stretch down.

Space Station Orange v.2 1:36:50

Super Orange Haze F4 X Cosmic Queen F4 *Super Sativa*
70/30 Sativa/Indica
70-80 days from sprout
1.5-3 ounce average
3 Feminized Seeds
Expect medium-sized, easy growing plants with shorter side branches that reach about half the height of the main cola. Floral and sour citrus flavors with an uplifting effect that is great for early morning and afternoon indulgences. Bag appeal is also of no concern, as this true F1 hybrid has it in spades! The Cosmic Queen reversal used for this cross was what I consider the super sativa expression of CQ. Tall, stretchy, thinner leaves, incredibly sweet resin, bag appeal, pest, and pm resistant with an elongated bud structure that is excellent for outdoors and in. Don’t miss out!

Star Krunch 1:37:18

Toof Decay x Cosmic Queen F4 *Quick Finish*
50/50 Sativa/Indica
65-75 days from sprout
1.5-3 ounce average
3 Feminized Seeds
Expect medium-sized bushes with stout branches that almost reach the height of the main cola. Extremely dense buds covered in sweet bakery and candy-flavored resin that will leave you wanting more. Cooler temperatures can bring out some beautiful fall colors that only add to her visual appeal. Stoney without the narcotic effect, great for an afternoon delight or as a post-meal treat. For the reversal I used a stocky, faster finishing Cosmic Queen as the pollen donor which will help add vigor and potency to this true F1, while keeping the stretch down.
***Be sure to keep an eye on these during early as the Toof Decay line can throw a ball or two during sexing, right where the side branches meet the main stem. It is rare, but can be brought about by stress or too strong an application of nutes during the sexing stage and seems to be most common when using humic acid. If you do see a ball pop up it can be removed and the plant will continue on fully female to finish her life. Also, keep airflow and humidity in check during the final few weeks, as the flower density can lead to bud rot in the wrong conditions. **\*

Creme De La Cosmos 1:38:23

Creme de la Soul F1 x Cosmic Queen F4 Quick Finish
50/50 Sativa/Indica
65-75 days from sprout
1.5-3 ounce average
3 Feminized Seeds
Expect medium plants with stout satellite branches reaching up to the shoulders of the main colas. Dense nugs covered in oily resin ranging in smells from red berries and sneakers to creamy grapes, this F1 polyhybrid has a lot to offer! Cooler temperatures can bring on fades of reds and purples, making her an absolute beauty in her final days. She has a balanced physical and mental high, leaning towards the stoney end of the spectrum, and will make for a great evening smoke. For the reversal I used a stocky, faster finishing Cosmic Queen as the pollen donor which will help add vigor and potency while keeping the stretch down.
Be sure to keep airflow and humidity in check during the final few weeks, as the flower density can lead to bud rot.

Shekinah 1:40:55

Supernatural OG x Cosmic Queen F4 Super Sativa
70/30 Sativa/Indica
75-85 days from sprout
2-4 ounce average
3 Feminized Seeds
Expect large, easy growing plants with sturdy branching and individual bud sites running their length, met with a medium cola cluster at their ends, with a large main cola. This F1 poly hybrid is chock full of hazey goodness! Flavors range from effervescent lemon-lime, to heavy juniper laced gin and tonic. The juniper flavors are my personal favorite and tend to kick my ass and get me super stoney, while the citrusy ones are more motivational. There’s a variety of outstanding expressions to be found in these, all on the sativa end of the spectrum. The Cosmic Queen reversal used for this cross was what I consider the super sativa expression of CQ. Tall, stretchy, thinner leaves, incredibly sweet resin, bag appeal, pest and pm resistant with an elongated bud structure that is excellent for outdoors and in. Don’t miss out!
Blessed by Hoodoo Moses I

Restock

Cosmic Apprentice (No Video)

Wizard’s Apprentice F4 x Cosmic Queen F4
Sativa
75 days from sprout
"Ready to get heady? Crossing a big-bodied sativa dominant Wizard’s Apprentice to the rush inducing Cosmic Queen resulted in a whole new variety that will keep your head in the clouds! Large plants with denser buds than Cosmic Queen, an overload of frost, and nostril piercing neon sweet and hazey scents finishing right around 75 days. If you’re into uplifting sativa effects with chunkier buds then she is definitely worth checking out."

Cheech Biggums 1:40:42

Wizard’s Apprentice F4 x Tyrone Stomper F6
Indica
70 days from sprout
A long time coming, the Cheech Biggums is sure to impress! Using a heavy Cheech Wizard dominant Wizard’s Apprentice mated to the ever-impressive Tyrone Stomper will produce medium to large, extra vigorous true F1 hybrids with fruity OG gas flavors and an occasional piney/floral expression in a quick 70ish days from sprout.
Picture of Post

February Drop Info

Copied from Daz's IG post.
Thank you all for your patience with me these past few weeks. I've been handling a lot of business behind the scenes in preparation for big things next year. 2020 was the year of staying off the radar with most of my big projects and not drawing any unnecessary attention. 2021 is the year of getting licensed and really showing you what it's all about! Thank you for your trust and faith in me during my overly cautious past few months/years. I won't let you down.🙏🌱🦉🌱🙏New photo to autos scheduled for the first half of 2021:
Pre '98 Bubba Kush x Auto Skywalker F4
Dosidos x Forum Stomper F4
Purple Punch x Forum Stomper F4
Sunset Sherbet x Forum Stomper F4
*Latest Update*The next scheduled drop Daz is aiming for is Valentine's day. This drop should include the new F4 photo to auto cultivars listed above, again as long as nothing delays this.

Originals and Regular seeds Restock

They are a work in progress
, Originals and Regular seeds shouldn't be expected till February earliest, and will MOST LIKELY be mid-2021 If there are no setbacks.

Seedbanks that carry NightOwl, and the Seedbank Drop

Not always up to date, post a comment if something has changed.
SeedBank Squanch Queen Foot Cheese Head Cheese Payment International Carry Mephisto Freebies
Neptune Seedbank Yes Yes Yes Credit Card (US Only), Bitcoin, PMC Gold, Cash Yes Yes *Need User Input
Supreme Seedbank Yes Yes Yes Money Gram/ Venmo/ Cash App/ Zelle, Money Order, Debit/ Credit (US ONLY 3.5% fee), Custom payment, Bitcoin, eGiftCertificate Yes Yes *Need User Input
Treestar Seedbank Yes Yes Yes Credit Card, Bitcoin, Money Order, Cash, Western Union, Cash App, Zelle Yes Yes Yes In-house freebies
Harvest Mutual Yes Yes Yes Cash, Money Order, Credit Card, Paypal Yes Yes Yes Masonic Freebies
Insane Seeds Yes Yes Yes Bitcoin, Cash, Credit Card Yes Yes No SALE ON HEAD CHEESE %25 OFF
DC Seed Exchange Yes Yes Yes Debit Card, Cash, Money Order, eCheck, Cryptocurrencies No Yes Sometimes / Use "5%DCSEEDS" for 5% off
Oregon Elite Seedbank Yes Yes Yes Cash, Money Order, Cryptocurrencies Yes No *Need User Input
Hembra Genetics No Yes Yes Cash, Cash App *need user input No No No / $45/pack
RMH719 SOLD OUT No No No Cash, Bitcoin *need user input No No Sometimes In-house Freebie
RMHCA SOLD OUT No No No Cash, Bitcoin, E-transfer No No Sometimes In-house Freebie

submitted by BlueJayin to MephHeads [link] [comments]

Gridcoin 5.0.0.0-Mandatory "Fern" Release

https://github.com/gridcoin-community/Gridcoin-Research/releases/tag/5.0.0.0
Finally! After over ten months of development and testing, "Fern" has arrived! This is a whopper. 240 pull requests merged. Essentially a complete rewrite that was started with the scraper (the "neural net" rewrite) in "Denise" has now been completed. Practically the ENTIRE Gridcoin specific codebase resting on top of the vanilla Bitcoin/Peercoin/Blackcoin vanilla PoS code has been rewritten. This removes the team requirement at last (see below), although there are many other important improvements besides that.
Fern was a monumental undertaking. We had to encode all of the old rules active for the v10 block protocol in new code and ensure that the new code was 100% compatible. This had to be done in such a way as to clear out all of the old spaghetti and ring-fence it with tightly controlled class implementations. We then wrote an entirely new, simplified ruleset for research rewards and reengineered contracts (which includes beacon management, polls, and voting) using properly classed code. The fundamentals of Gridcoin with this release are now on a very sound and maintainable footing, and the developers believe the codebase as updated here will serve as the fundamental basis for Gridcoin's future roadmap.
We have been testing this for MONTHS on testnet in various stages. The v10 (legacy) compatibility code has been running on testnet continuously as it was developed to ensure compatibility with existing nodes. During the last few months, we have done two private testnet forks and then the full public testnet testing for v11 code (the new protocol which is what Fern implements). The developers have also been running non-staking "sentinel" nodes on mainnet with this code to verify that the consensus rules are problem-free for the legacy compatibility code on the broader mainnet. We believe this amount of testing is going to result in a smooth rollout.
Given the amount of changes in Fern, I am presenting TWO changelogs below. One is high level, which summarizes the most significant changes in the protocol. The second changelog is the detailed one in the usual format, and gives you an inkling of the size of this release.

Highlights

Protocol

Note that the protocol changes will not become active until we cross the hard-fork transition height to v11, which has been set at 2053000. Given current average block spacing, this should happen around October 4, about one month from now.
Note that to get all of the beacons in the network on the new protocol, we are requiring ALL beacons to be validated. A two week (14 day) grace period is provided by the code, starting at the time of the transition height, for people currently holding a beacon to validate the beacon and prevent it from expiring. That means that EVERY CRUNCHER must advertise and validate their beacon AFTER the v11 transition (around Oct 4th) and BEFORE October 18th (or more precisely, 14 days from the actual date of the v11 transition). If you do not advertise and validate your beacon by this time, your beacon will expire and you will stop earning research rewards until you advertise and validate a new beacon. This process has been made much easier by a brand new beacon "wizard" that helps manage beacon advertisements and renewals. Once a beacon has been validated and is a v11 protocol beacon, the normal 180 day expiration rules apply. Note, however, that the 180 day expiration on research rewards has been removed with the Fern update. This means that while your beacon might expire after 180 days, your earned research rewards will be retained and can be claimed by advertising a beacon with the same CPID and going through the validation process again. In other words, you do not lose any earned research rewards if you do not stake a block within 180 days and keep your beacon up-to-date.
The transition height is also when the team requirement will be relaxed for the network.

GUI

Besides the beacon wizard, there are a number of improvements to the GUI, including new UI transaction types (and icons) for staking the superblock, sidestake sends, beacon advertisement, voting, poll creation, and transactions with a message. The main screen has been revamped with a better summary section, and better status icons. Several changes under the hood have improved GUI performance. And finally, the diagnostics have been revamped.

Blockchain

The wallet sync speed has been DRASTICALLY improved. A decent machine with a good network connection should be able to sync the entire mainnet blockchain in less than 4 hours. A fast machine with a really fast network connection and a good SSD can do it in about 2.5 hours. One of our goals was to reduce or eliminate the reliance on snapshots for mainnet, and I think we have accomplished that goal with the new sync speed. We have also streamlined the in-memory structures for the blockchain which shaves some memory use.
There are so many goodies here it is hard to summarize them all.
I would like to thank all of the contributors to this release, but especially thank @cyrossignol, whose incredible contributions formed the backbone of this release. I would also like to pay special thanks to @barton2526, @caraka, and @Quezacoatl1, who tirelessly helped during the testing and polishing phase on testnet with testing and repeated builds for all architectures.
The developers are proud to present this release to the community and we believe this represents the starting point for a true renaissance for Gridcoin!

Summary Changelog

Accrual

Changed

Most significantly, nodes calculate research rewards directly from the magnitudes in EACH superblock between stakes instead of using a two- or three- point average based on a CPID's current magnitude and the magnitude for the CPID when it last staked. For those long-timers in the community, this has been referred to as "Superblock Windows," and was first done in proof-of-concept form by @denravonska.

Removed

Beacons

Added

Changed

Removed

Unaltered

As a reminder:

Superblocks

Added

Changed

Removed

Voting

Added

Changed

Removed

Detailed Changelog

[5.0.0.0] 2020-09-03, mandatory, "Fern"

Added

Changed

Removed

Fixed

submitted by jamescowens to gridcoin [link] [comments]

A criticism of the article "Six monetarist errors: why emission won't feed inflation"

(be gentle, it's my first RI attempt, :P; I hope I can make justice to the subject, this is my layman understanding of many macro subjects which may be flawed...I hope you can illuminate me if I have fallen short of a good RI)
Introduction
So, today a heterodox leaning Argentinian newspaper, Ambito Financiero, published an article criticizing monetarism called "Six monetarist errors: why emission won't feed inflation". I find it doesn't properly address monetarism, confuses it with other "economic schools" for whatever the term is worth today and it may be misleading, so I was inspired to write a refutation and share it with all of you.
In some ways criticizing monetarism is more of a historical discussion given the mainstream has changed since then. Stuff like New Keynesian models are the bleeding edge, not Milton Friedman style monetarism. It's more of a symptom that Argentinian political culture is kind of stuck in the 70s on economics that this things keep being discussed.
Before getting to the meat of the argument, it's good to have in mind some common definitions about money supply measures (specifically, MB, M1 and M2). These definitions apply to US but one can find analogous stuff for other countries.
Argentina, for the lack of access to credit given its economic mismanagement and a government income decrease because of the recession, is monetizing deficits way more than before (like half of the budget, apparently, it's money financed) yet we have seen some disinflation (worth mentioning there are widespread price freezes since a few months ago). The author reasons that monetary phenomena cannot explain inflation properly and that other explanations are needed and condemns monetarism. Here are the six points he makes:
1.Is it a mechanical rule?
This way, we can ask by symmetry: if a certainty exists that when emission increases, inflation increases, the reverse should happen when emission becomes negative, obtaining negative inflation. Nonetheless, we know this happens: prices have an easier time increasing and a lot of rigidity decreasing. So the identity between emission and inflation is not like that, deflation almost never exists and the price movement rhythm cannot be controlled remotely only with money quantity. There is no mechanical relationship between one thing and the other.
First, the low hanging fruit: deflation is not that uncommon, for those of you that live in US and Europe it should be obvious given the difficulties central banks had to achieve their targets, but even Argentina has seen deflation during its depression 20 years ago.
Second, we have to be careful with what we mean by emission. A statement of quantity theory of money (extracted from "Money Growth and Inflation: How Long is the Long-Run?") would say:
Inflation occurs when the average level of prices increases. Individual price increases in and of themselves do not equal inflation, but an overall pattern of price increases does. The price level observed in the economy is that which leads the quantity of money supplied to equal the quantity of money demanded. The quantity of money supplied is largely controlled by the [central bank]. When the supply of money increases or decreases, the price level must adjust to equate the quantity of money demanded throughout the economy with the quantity of money supplied. The quantity of money demanded depends not only on the price level but also on the level of real income, as measured by real gross domestic product (GDP), and a variety of other factors including the level of interest rates and technological advances such as the invention of automated teller machines. Money demand is widely thought to increase roughly proportionally with the price level and with real income. That is, if prices go up by 10 percent, or if real income increases by 10 percent, empirical evidence suggests people want to hold 10 percent more money. When the money supply grows faster than the money demand associated with rising real incomes and other factors, the price level must rise to equate supply and demand. That is, inflation occurs. This situation is often referred to as too many dollars chasing too few goods. Note that this theory does not predict that any money-supply growth will lead to inflation—only that part of money supply growth that exceeds the increase in money demand associated with rising real GDP (holding the other factors constant).
So it's not mere emission, but money supply growing faster than money demand which we should consider. So negative emission is not necessary condition for deflation in this theory.
It's worth mentioning that the relationship with prices is observed for a broad measure of money (M2) and after a lag. From the same source of this excerpt one can observe in Fig. 3a the correlation between inflation and money growth for US becomes stronger the longer data is averaged. Price rigidities don't have to change this long term relationship per se.
But what about causality and Argentina? This neat paper shows regressions in two historical periods: 1976-1989 and 1991-2001. The same relationship between M2 and inflation is observed, stronger in the first, highly inflationary period and weaker in the second, more stable, period. The regressions a 1-1 relationship in the high inflation period but deviates a bit in the low inflation period (yet the relationship is still there). Granger causality, as interpreted in the paper, shows prices caused money growth in the high inflation period (arguably because spending was monetized) while the reverse was true for the more stable period.
So one can argue that there is a mechanical relationship, albeit one that is more complicated than simple QTOM theory. The relationship is complicated too for low inflation economies, it gets more relevant the higher inflation is.
Another point the author makes is that liquidity trap is often ignored. I'll ignore the fact that you need specific conditions for the liquidity trap to be relevant to Argentina and address the point. Worth noting that while market monetarists (not exactly old fashioned monetarists) prefer alternative explanations for monetary policy with very low interest rates, this phenomena has a good monetary basis, as explained by Krugman in his famous japanese liquidity trap paper and his NYT blog (See this and this for some relevant articles). The simplified version is that while inflation may follow M2 growth with all the qualifiers needed, central banks may find difficulties targeting inflation when interest rates are low and agents are used to credible inflation targets. Central banks can change MB, not M2 and in normal times is good enough, but at those times M2 is out of control and "credibly irresponsible" policies are needed to return to normal (a more detailed explanation can be found in that paper I just linked, go for it if you are still curious).
It's not like monetary policy is not good, it's that central banks have to do very unconventional stuff to achieve in a low interest rate environment. It's still an open problem but given symmetric inflation targeting policies are becoming more popular I'm optimistic.
2 - Has inflation one or many causes?
In Argentina we know that the main determinant of inflation is dollar price increases. On that, economic concentration of key markets, utility price adjustments, fuel prices, distributive struggles, external commodity values, expectatives, productive disequilibrium, world interest rates, the economic cycle, stationality and external sector restrictions act on it too.
Let's see a simple example: during Macri's government since mid 2017 to 2019 emission was practically null, but when in 2018 the dollar value doubled, inflation doubled too (it went from 24% to 48% in 2018) and it went up again a year later. We see here that the empirical validity of monetarist theory was absent.
For the first paragraph, one could try to run econometric tests for all those variables, at least from my layman perspective. But given that it doesn't pass the smell test (has any country used that in its favor ignoring monetary policy? Also, I have shown there is at least some evidence for the money-price relationship before), I'll try to address what happened in Macri's government and if monetarism (or at least some reasonable extension of it) cannot account for it.
For a complete description of macroeconomic policy on that period, Sturzenegger account is a good one (even if a bit unreliable given he was the central banker for that government and he is considered to have been a failure). The short version is that central banks uses bonds to manage monetary policy and absorb money; given the history of defaults for the country, the Argentinian Central Bank (BCRA) uses its own peso denominated bonds instead of using treasury bonds. At that time period, the BCRA still financed the treasury but the amount got reduced. Also, it emitted pesos to buy dollar reserves, then sterilized them, maybe risking credibility further.
Near the end of 2017 it was evident the government had limited appetite for budget cuts, it had kind of abandoned its inflation target regime and the classic problem of fiscal dominance emerged, as it's shown in the classic "Unpleasant monetarist arithmetic" paper by Wallace and Sargent. Monetary policy gets less effective when the real value of bonds falls, and raising interest rates may be counterproductive in that environment. Rational expectations are needed to complement QTOM.
So, given that Argentina promised to go nowhere with reform, it was expected that money financing would increase at some point in the future and BCRA bonds were dumped in 2018 and 2019 as their value was perceived to have decreased, and so peso demand decreased. It's not that the dollar value increased and inflation followed, but instead that peso demand fell suddenly!
The IMF deal asked for MB growth to be null or almost null but that doesn't say a lot about M2 (which it's the relevant variable here). Without credible policies, the peso demand keeps falling because bonds are dumped even more (see 2019 for a hilariously brutal example of that).
It's not emission per se, but rather that it doesn't adjust properly to peso demand (which is falling). That doesn't mean increasing interest rates is enough to achieve it, following Wallace and Sargent model.
This is less a strict proof that a monetary phenomenon is involved and more stating that the author hasn't shown any problem with that, there are reasonable models for this situation. It doesn't look like an clear empirical failure to me yet.
3 - Of what we are talking about when we talk about emission?
The author mentions many money measures (M0, M1, M2) but it doesn't address it meaningfully as I tried to do above. It feels more like a rhetorical device because there is no point here except "this stuff exists".
Also, it's worth pointing that there are actual criticisms to make to Friedman on those grounds. He failed to forecast US inflation at some points when he switched to M1 instead of using M2, although he later reverted that. Monetarism kind of "failed" there (it also "failed" in the sense that modern central banks don't use money, but instead interest rates as their main tool; "failed" because despite being outdated, it was influential to modern central banking). This is often brought to this kind of discussions like if economics hasn't moved beyond that. For an account of Friedman thoughts on monetary policies and his failures, see this.
4 - Why do many countries print and inflation doesn't increase there?
There is a mention about the japanese situation in the 90s (the liquidity trap) which I have addressed.
The author mentions that many countries "printed" like crazy during the pandemic, and he says:
Monetarism apologists answer, when confronted with those grave empirical problems that happen in "serious countries", that the population "trusts" their monetary authorities, even increasing the money demand in those place despite the emission. Curious, though, it's an appeal to "trust" implying that the relationship between emission and inflation is not objective, but subjective and cultural: an appreciation that abandons mechanicism and the basic certainty of monetarism, because evaluations and diagnostics, many times ideologic, contextual or historical intervene..
That's just a restatement of applying rational expectations to central bank operations. I don't see a problem with that. Rational expectations is not magic, it's an assessment of future earnings by economic actors. Humans may not 100% rational but central banking somehow works on many countries. You cannot just say that people are ideologues and let it at that. What's your model?
Worth noting the author shills for bitcoin a bit in this section, for more cringe.
5 - Are we talking of a physical science or a social science?
Again, a vague mention of rational expectations ("populists and pro market politicians could do the same policies with different results because of how agents respond ideologically and expectatives") without handling the subject meaningfully. It criticizes universal macroeconomic rules that apply everywhere (this is often used to dismiss evidence from other countries uncritically more than as a meaningful point).
6 - How limits work?
The last question to monetarism allows to recognize it something: effectively we can think on a type of vinculation between emission and inflation in extreme conditions. That means, with no monetary rule, no government has the need of taxes but instead can emit and spend all it needs without consequence. We know it's not like that: no government can print infinitely without undesirable effects.
Ok, good disclaimer, but given what he wrote before, what's the mechanism which causes money printing to be inflationary at some point? It was rejected before but now it seems that it exists. What was even the point of the article?
Now, the problem is thinking monetarism on its extremes: without emission we have inflation sometimes, on others we have no inflation with emission, we know that if we have negative emission that doesn't guarantees us negative inflation, but that if emission is radically uncontrolled there will economic effects.
As I wrote above, that's not what monetarism (even on it's simpler form) says, nor a consequence of it. You can see some deviations in low inflation environment but it's not really Argentina's current situation.
Let's add other problems: the elastic question between money and prices is not evident. Neither is time lags in which can work or be neutral. So the question is the limit cases for monetarism which has some reason but some difficulty in explaining them: by which and it what moments rules work and in which it doesn't.
I find the time lag thing to be a red herring. You can observe empirically and not having a proper short/middle run model doesn't invalidate QTOM in the long run. While it may be that increasing interest rates or freezing MB is not effective, that's less a problem of the theory and more a problem of policy implementation.
Conclusion:
I find that the article doesn't truly get monetarism to begin with (see the points it makes about emission and money demand), neither how it's implemented in practice, nor seems to be aware of more modern theories that, while put money on the background, don't necessarily invalidate it (rational expectation ideas, and eventually New Keynesian stuff which addresses stuff like liquidity traps properly).
There are proper criticisms to be made to Friedman old ideas but he still was a relevant man in his time and the economic community has moved on to new, better theories that have some debt to it. I feel most economic discussion about monetarism in Argentina is a strawman of mainstream economics or an attack on Austrians more than genuine points ("monetarism" is used as a shorthand for those who think inflation is a monetary phenomenon more than referring to Friedman and his disciples per se).
submitted by Neronoah to badeconomics [link] [comments]

Testing the Tide | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - June 2020

We would rather be ruined than changed.
-W H Auden, The Age of Anxiety
This is my forty-third portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $726 306
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $42 118
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $78 730
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $111 691
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $201 745
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $39 357
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $231 269
Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 668
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 310
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $5 532
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $117 757
Secured physical gold – $18 913
Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $10 479
Bitcoin – $148 990
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 841
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 553
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 484
Total portfolio value: $1 765 743 (+$8 485 or 0.5%)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 42.2% (2.8% under)
Global shares – 22.0%
Emerging markets shares – 2.3%
International small companies – 3.0%
Total international shares – 27.3% (2.7% under)
Total shares – 69.5% (5.5% under)
Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over)
Australian bonds – 4.7%
International bonds – 9.4%
Total bonds – 14.0% (1.0% under)
Gold – 7.7%
Bitcoin – 8.4%
Gold and alternatives – 16.2% (6.2% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
[Chart]
Comments
The overall portfolio increased slightly over the month. This has continued to move the portfolio beyond the lows seen in late March.
The modest portfolio growth of $8 000, or 0.5 per cent, maintains its value at around that achieved at the beginning of the year.
[Chart]
The limited growth this month largely reflects an increase in the value of my current equity holdings, in VAS and A200 and the Vanguard retail funds. This has outweighed a small decline in the value of Bitcoin and global shares. The value of the bond holdings also increased modestly, pushing them to their highest value since around early 2017.
[Chart]
There still appears to be an air of unreality around recent asset price increases and the broader economic context. Britain's Bank of England has on some indicators shown that the aftermath of the pandemic and lockdown represent the most challenging financial crisis in around 300 years. What is clear is that investor perceptions and fear around the coronavirus pandemic are a substantial ongoing force driving volatility in equity markets (pdf).
A somewhat optimistic view is provided here that the recovery could look more like the recovery from a natural disaster, rather than a traditional recession. Yet there are few certainties on offer. Negative oil prices, and effective offers by US equity investors to bail out Hertz creditors at no cost appear to be signs of a financial system under significant strains.
As this Reserve Bank article highlights, while some Australian households are well-placed to weather the storm ahead, the timing and severity of what lays ahead is an important unknown that will itself feed into changes in household wealth from here.
Investments this month have been exclusively in the Australian shares exchange-traded fund (VAS) using Selfwealth.* This has been to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares.
A moving azimuth: falling spending continues
Monthly expenses on the credit card have continued their downward trajectory across the past month.
[Chart]
The rolling average of monthly credit card spending is now at its lowest point over the period of the journey. This is despite the end of lockdown, and a slow resumption of some more normal aspects of spending.
This has continued the brief period since April of the achievement of a notional and contingent kind of financial independence.
The below chart illustrates this temporary state, setting out the degree to which portfolio distributions cover estimated total expenses, measured month to month.
[Chart]
There are two sources of volatility underlying its movement. The first is the level of expenses, which can vary, and the second is the fact that it is based on financial year distributions, which are themselves volatile.
Importantly, the distributions over the last twelve months of this chart is only an estimate - and hence the next few weeks will affect the precision of this analysis across its last 12 observations.
Estimating 2019-20 financial year portfolio distributions
Since the beginning of the journey, this time of year usually has sense of waiting for events to unfold - in particular, finding out the level of half-year distributions to June.
These represent the bulk of distributions, usually averaging 60-65 per cent of total distributions received. They are an important and tangible signpost of progress on the financial independence journey.
This is no simple task, as distributions have varied in size considerably.
A part of this variation has been the important role of sometimes large and lumpy capital distributions - which have made up between 30 to 48 per cent of total distributions in recent years, and an average of around 15 per cent across the last two decades.
I have experimented with many different approaches, most of which have relied on averaging over multi-year periods to even out the 'peaks and troughs' of how market movements may have affected distributions. The main approaches have been:
Each of these have their particular simplifications, advantages and drawbacks.
Developing new navigation tools
Over the past month I have also developed more fully an alternate 'model' for estimating returns.
This simply derives a median value across a set of historical 'cents per unit' distribution data for June and December payouts for the Vanguard funds and exchange traded funds. These make up over 96 per cent of income producing portfolio assets.
In other words, this model essentially assumes that each Vanguard fund and ETF owned pays out the 'average' level of distributions this half-year, with the average being based on distribution records that typically go back between 5 to 10 years.
Mapping the distribution estimates
The chart below sets out the estimate produced by each approach for the June distributions that are to come.
[Chart]
Some observations on these findings can be made.
The lowest estimate is the 'adjusted GFC income' observation, which essentially assumes that the income for this period is as low as experienced by the equity and bond portfolio during the Global Financial Crisis. Just due to timing differences of the period observed, this seems to be a 'worst case' lower bound estimate, which I do not currently place significant weight on.
Similarly, at the highest end, the 'average distribution rate' approach simply assumes June distributions deliver a distribution equal to the median that the entire portfolio has delivered since 1999. With higher interest rates, and larger fixed income holdings across much of that time, this seems an objectively unlikely outcome.
Similarly, the delivery of exactly the income suggested by long-term averages measured across decades and even centuries would be a matter of chance, rather than the basis for rational expectations.
Central estimates of the line of position
This leaves the estimates towards the centre of the chart - estimates of between around $28 000 to $43 000 as representing the more likely range.
I attach less weight to the historical three-year average due to the high contribution of distributed capital gains over that period of growth, where at least across equities some capital losses are likely to be in greater presence.
My preferred central estimate is the model estimate (green) , as it is based in historical data directly from the investment vehicles rather than my own evolving portfolio. The data it is based on in some cases goes back to the Global Financial Crisis. This estimate is also quite close to the raw average of all the alternative approaches (red). It sits a little above the 'adjusted income' measure.
None of these estimates, it should be noted, contain any explicit adjustment for the earnings and dividend reductions or delays arising from COVID-19. They may, therefore represent a modest over-estimate for likely June distributions, to the extent that these effects are more negative than those experienced on average across the period of the underlying data.
These are difficult to estimate, but dividend reductions could easily be in the order of 20-30 per cent, plausibly lowering distributions to the $23 000 to $27 000 range. The recently announced forecast dividend for the Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) is, for example, the lowest in four years.
As seen from chart above, there is a wide band of estimates, which grow wider still should capital gains be unexpectedly distributed from the Vanguard retail funds. These have represented a source of considerable volatility. Given this, it may seem fruitless to seek to estimate these forthcoming distributions, compared to just waiting for them to arrive.
Yet this exercise helps by setting out reasoning and positions, before hindsight bias urgently arrives to inform me that I knew the right answer all along. It also potentially helps clearly 'reject' some models over time, if the predictions they make prove to be systematically incorrect.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 81.0% 109.4%
Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 98.8% 133.5%
Total expenses – $89 000 pa 79.2% 106.9%
Summary
The current coronavirus conditions are affecting all aspects of the journey to financial independence - changing spending habits, leading to volatility in equity markets and sequencing risks, and perhaps dramatically altering the expected pattern of portfolio distributions.
Although history can provide some guidance, there is simply no definitive way to know whether any or all of these changes will be fundamental and permanent alterations, or simply data points on a post-natural disaster path to a different post-pandemic set of conditions. There is the temptation to fit past crises imperfectly into the modern picture, as this Of Dollars and Data post illustrates well.
Taking a longer 100 year view, this piece 'The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent' is a reminder that our entire set of received truths about constructing a portfolio to survive for the long-term can be a product of a sample size of one - actual past history - and subject to recency bias.
This month has felt like one of quiet routines, muted events compared to the past few months, and waiting to understand more fully the shape of the new. Nonetheless, with each new investment, or week of lower expenditure than implied in my FI target, the nature of the journey is incrementally changing - beneath the surface.
Small milestones are being passed - such as over 40 per cent of my equity holdings being outside of the the Vanguard retail funds. Or these these retail funds - which once formed over 95 per cent of the portfolio - now making up less than half.
With a significant part of the financial independence journey being about repeated small actions producing outsized results with time, the issue of maintaining good routines while exploring beneficial changes is real.
Adding to the complexity is that embarking on the financial journey itself is likely to change who one is. This idea, of the difficulty or impossibility of knowing the preferences of a future self, is explored in a fascinating way in this Econtalk podcast episode with a philosophical thought experiment about vampires. It poses the question: perhaps we can never know ourselves at the destination? And yet, who would rationally choose ruin over any change?
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

Fun Fact: This is the closest a Millionaire Makers drawing thread will get to Christmas Eve! Comment to enter, and let’s make someone’s Christmas while we still can! [Drawing Thread #37]

OBLIGATORY EDIT: Thanks for the Silv'a, kind and generous stranger. For your generosity, have a video of Silver, from the hit video-game, Sonic the Hedgehog 2006, detailing the glorious benefits silver has on the Reddit culture! Thank you. (I hope you liked the joke.)

Santa Claus is coming! …and apparently it’s a 100,000 people in a red trench coat.

Edit: There are three deleted comments. The drill is to run the code again at 3:00 UTC, with a trial run before and after.
Quick Announcement:
On December 28, 2018, one week after this drawing, I will conduct a survey to help determine this subreddit’s direction. Additionally, the moderation team will unveil a new Discord server at the same time for our subscribers to discuss the subreddit and the drawing. Here are some questions you can expect (updated):
  • What day of the month would you like the /MillionaireMakers drawing to be held?
  • Should the code be further streamlined to acquire comment IDs at a faster and just pace? (Context: There's new code that can be used to prevent further cases of cheating, but it also changes the process.)
  • What is the best cryptocurrency blockchain to choose the winner from?
  • Should the [Drawing Thread] post's format be revamped in the future?
  • Should there be monthly or seasonal announcements the Monday of the [Drawing Thread]'s week?
If you would like to see something specific change over here at /MillionaireMakers, please click here! Your comments will help determine any additional questions the moderation team should ask the subscribers.
TL;DR: Leave a comment on this thread. A random user will be chosen, and everyone donates a dollar to make a millionaire. You are welcome to spread this thread via upvoting, telling friends and family, and sharing on social media! If you'd like to be reminded to donate to the winner by RemindMeBot, click here!
What is this, anyway?
Three years ago, a Redditor posted an idea in /Showerthoughts that speculated the fact, if a million people picked a certain Redditor and all donated just $1, they would have the power to make someone a millionaire.
This subreddit is an embodiment of that showerthought, and the monthly drawings are the attempts to make it happen.
We need your help to keep this running, which amounts to only $1 a month to make someone's day. In the long term, that’s $120 every decade, which is a much more affordable price than other expenses. How does it work? Below, you will find an explanation on entering, rules to keep in mind, the selection, and other important things to note.
How to enter:
  • REQUIRED: Leave only one (1) top level comment in reply to this thread! Replying to other comments will not count. It is highly recommended to comment "RemindMe! 3 days Donation for /millionairemakers", which will remind you via PM to donate.
Important Rules:
  • Only ONE top level comment per person (replies and subsequent-level comments aren't included), but feel free to reply to other comments. Making duplicate top level comments may result in exclusion from entering. Go to me to ensure you don't accidentally double comment.
  • If, by any chance, you do double comment, delete any extra duplicates ASAP, ideally before the thread is locked in 24 hours, as any chosen draws found to violate this will not be eligible to win, and will be banned from the subreddit.
  • Your account must be older than 30 days with some amount of activity. Throwaway accounts with very minimal activity will also not be eligible. This is to prevent multiple entries from the same person.
How will the winner be picked and how can you donate?
  • After 24 hours, this thread will close, and the method of selection will begin.
  • While attempts to make the selection method similar to 2017’s have been performed, it still varies from the original. For an example from a prior drawing, see [Draw #36]. For archival purposes, please click here for the original selection method.
  • Method's TL;DR: Your number is assigned by sorting the comments by old, so the first commenter will be 1, and the list of comments will be publicly released. The subreddit then waits for a randomly generated block (a string of numbers) from Bitcoin's blockchain, after a preselected date and time, and calculates the winner using a formula described in the posts mentioned above.
  • Comment IDs are downloaded at 2:00 UTC, three hours following the thread being locked. There will be a trial run prior to the time listed, one at the time listed, and one trial run thirty minutes after. If it is shown that the deletion of comments has occurred between any of the trial runs, or technical difficulties, the retrieval of the comments will be delayed by an hour, following the same procedures. For [Drawing Thread #37], this has occurred, and retrieval of comments will be delayed to 3:00 UTC.
  • While not necessary, to determine if you are on the list, please go to your comment and save it. The comment ID is what gets recorded and selected, which looks like this: e3yxpj4.
  • The user who created the winning comment will be informed of their luck and will provide any information necessary for their chosen payment methods (mods will help set this up if needed).
  • The generous Reddit community donates to this lucky person, hopefully making some worthy soul a millionaire! A donation table will be stickied to the winner’s post, giving users the freedom in how they donate.
  • The lucky Redditor follows up with a thank you within the next days, revealing to the community exactly how much was raised and thanking their generosity.
Reminders
  • Take the time you have available now to setup your PayPal, Square Cash, and Google Wallet account, and/or cryptocurrency wallets. (Note: Some services may not be available depending on where you reside.)
  • To buy any cryptocurrencies, you may use Coinbase for purchases using your bank account.
  • To store cryptocurrencies, there are many accessible wallets, and if you win, you will be guided on which ones to download. For Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash, it’s recommended to use the Electrum and Electron Cash wallet for Mac, Linux, and PC.
  • Please try your best to donate a $1, no matter who wins. Every single dollar, cent, anything really counts, so please take the effort to remember and go through with it.
  • If you want to be reminded to donate, please comment "RemindMe! 3 days Donation for /millionairemakers".
  • Spread the word! The more people who participate, the better this gets for everyone! There has been a correlation between this subreddit making it in /all and an increase in donations.
  • Try to cross-post to relevant subs, and upvote. There is a correlation between reaching /all and the amount of donations for the winner. (Please don't spam other subs though. We're not trying to make any enemies here.)
  • If you are under 18, please talk to your parents to get their consent to participate and use their help to setup a PayPal account.
MOST IMPORTANTLY
Remember, this is about generosity, making history, and coming together to make someone's life better. It takes three minutes to donate a bit to the winner, whether you're well off and want to donate a couple bucks, or going through tough times and can only donate a few pennies. Every cent counts.
Note about legality: This is NOT a lottery. You don't have to pay to enter. No prizes are given away directly by the moderators of this subreddit (the moderators will never even touch your donations; this is done voluntarily). As for gift taxes, according to the IRS they're generally paid by the donor, and any donations under $14,000 is not taxable.
If a lone $1 can get you a Dollar Tree-worthy present, imagine the possibilities with $1,000,000. You can go invite your family to a Disney World vacation, invite friends without hesitation, or put up Christmas decorations!
One million dollars can be enough to make someone’s Christmas. Spread the word: have your friends and family comment, post the link to your friendly-neighborhood social media network, and share it to anyone interested.
LET'S GIVE THE GIFT THAT KEEPS ON GIVING!
A Christmas delight,
With people dear, near, and cheer.
The winner’s tonight!
submitted by lilfruini to millionairemakers [link] [comments]

3 months later. How the profitability of mining changed after halving

3 months later. How the profitability of mining changed after halving

3 months later. How the profitability of mining changed after halving
On May 11, the size of the Bitcoin mining reward fell by half. The next time it will be in 2024. What devices will be profitable by that time, and what to hope for owners of obsolete equipment.
In May 2020, a halving took place on the bitcoin network. The cryptocurrency mining reward has decreased from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC. This is a long-awaited event, which, according to the hopes of the crypto community, should lead to a strong increase in the value of the coin. For example, Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of investment company Morgan Creek Digital, predicted that the rate would rise to $100,000 by the end of 2021, primarily due to lower mining rewards.
So far, the bitcoin price hasn’t responded to the halving as much as expected. In mid-May, at the time of the reduction in the mining reward, the BTC rate was around $9,000. To date, the cryptocurrency has risen in price by 27%. This year’s high was set yesterday, August 18, at $12,400.
The hashrate of the cryptocurrency network showed a different dynamics. Its value fell immediately after the halving from 137.5 to 87 EH/s, according to bitinfocharts.com. Since mining bitcoins has become less profitable, some of the miners probably turned off their equipment. They could switch to mining other coins or completely abandon this activity due to its unprofitability.
Later, when the BTC rate began to rise, the amount of computing power in the coin’s network also began to increase. So, from late May to mid-August, the cryptocurrency hash rate increased from 87 to 130 EH/s. But over the past three days, the figure has dropped sharply by 20%, caused by floods in China. Torrential rains in Sichuan province caused power outages that interfered with the operation of mining farms.
Changes in hashrate and mining rewards have affected its difficulty. On May 11, at the time of the halving, this figure was at around 16.1 T. By the current moment, this value has increased to 16.9 T, in July rising to a maximum of 17.3 T.
The decline in the reward for mining cryptocurrency was partially offset by the increase in fees. Until May, a single BTC transfer cost the user an average of 50 cents. By the current moment, commissions have grown more than 10 times, to $5.5.
Mining profitability is now at around 0.114 THash/s. It fell sharply immediately after the halving from 0.16 to 0.08 THash/s. To date, the indicator has grown by 40%. This was due to the rise in BTC prices and higher fees.
Development Director at BitCluster Dmitry Shuvaev said that the profitability of the device for mining BTC s17–73Th/s is now about 8 thousand rubles per month (at an electricity price of 3.5 rubles per kWh). The payback period is about 15 months. Old devices, such as the Antminer S9, are now unprofitable to use, they do not bring profit. But this situation may change if the bitcoin rate rises to $15,000.
“We recommend our customers to buy the new generation S17 or S19 devices. It is these devices that will provide profitability until the next halving. Their break-even point is at $6,000 per bitcoin”, Shuvaev said.
In June, specialists from the research division of the BitMEX exchange announced that in the long term, 2–3 ASIC miner manufacturers will remain in the industry. Canaan’s Avalon devices were the first to hit the market in 2014. Three years later, in 2017, Bitmain took 75% of the market.
Subscribe to our Telegram channel
submitted by Smart_Smell to Robopay [link] [comments]

Filecoin | Development Status and Mining Progress

Author: Gamals Ahmed, CoinEx Business Ambassador
https://preview.redd.it/5bqakdqgl3g51.jpg?width=865&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b709794863977eb6554e3919b9e00ca750e3e704
A decentralized storage network that transforms cloud storage into an account market. Miners obtain the integrity of the original protocol by providing data storage and / or retrieval. On the contrary, customers pay miners to store or distribute data and retrieve it.
Filecoin announced, that there will be more delays before its main network is officially launched.
Filecoin developers postponed the release date of their main network to late July to late August 2020.
As mentioned in a recent announcement, the Filecoin team said that the initiative completed the first round of the internal protocol security audit. Platform developers claim that the results of the review showed that they need to make several changes to the protocol’s code base before performing the second stage of the software testing process.
Created by Protocol Labs, Filecoin was developed using File System (IPFS), which is a peer-to-peer data storage network. Filecoin will allow users to trade storage space in an open and decentralized market.
Filecoin developers implemented one of the largest cryptocurrency sales in 2017. They have privately obtained over $ 200 million from professional or accredited investors, including many institutional investors.
The main network was slated to launch last month, but in February 2020, the Philly Queen development team delayed the release of the main network between July 15 and July 17, 2020.
They claimed that the outbreak of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) in China was the main cause of the delay. The developers now say that they need more time to solve the problems found during a recent codecase audit.
The Filecoin team noted the following:
“We have drafted a number of protocol changes to ensure that building our major network launch is safe and economically sound.” The project developers will add them to two different implementations of Filecoin (Lotus and go-filecoin) in the coming weeks.
Filecoin developers conducted a survey to allow platform community members to cast their votes on three different launch dates for Testnet Phase 2 and mainnet.
The team reported that the community gave their votes. Based on the vote results, the Filecoin team announced a “conservative” estimate that the second phase of the network test should begin by May 11, 2020. The main Filecoin network may be launched sometime between July 20 and August 21, 2020.
The updates to the project can be found on the Filecoin Road Map.
Filecoin developers stated:
“This option will make us get the most important protocol changes first, and then implement the rest as protocol updates during testnet.” Filecoin is back down from the final test stage.
Another filecoin decentralized storage network provider launched its catalytic test network, the final stage of the storage network test that supports the blockchain.
In a blog post on her website, Filecoin said she will postpone the last test round until August. The company also announced a calibration period from July 20 to August 3 to allow miners to test their mining settings and get an idea of how competition conditions affected their rewards.
Filecoin had announced earlier last month that the catalytic testnet test would precede its flagship launch. The delay in the final test also means that the company has returned the main launch window between August 31 and September 21.
Despite the lack of clear incentives for miners and multiple delays, Filecoin has succeeded in attracting huge interest, especially in China. Investors remained highly speculating on the network’s mining hardware and its premium price.
Mining in Filecoin
In most blockchain protocols, “miners” are network participants who do the work necessary to promote and maintain the blockchain. To provide these services, miners are compensated in the original cryptocurrency.
Mining in Filecoin works completely differently — instead of contributing to computational power, miners contribute storage capacity to use for dealing with customers looking to store data.
Filecoin will contain several types of miners:
Storage miners responsible for storing files and data on the network. Miners retrieval, responsible for providing quick tubes for file recovery. Miners repair to be carried out.
Storage miners are the heart of the network. They earn Filecoin by storing data for clients, and computerizing cipher directories to check storage over time. The probability of earning the reward reward and transaction fees is proportional to the amount of storage that the Miner contributes to the Filecoin network, not the hash power.
Retriever miners are the veins of the network. They earn Filecoin by winning bids and mining fees for a specific file, which is determined by the market value of the said file size. Miners bandwidth and recovery / initial transaction response time will determine its ability to close recovery deals on the network.
The maximum bandwidth of the recovery miners will determine the total amount of deals that it can enter into.
In the current implementation, the focus is mostly on storage miners, who sell storage capacity for FIL.

Hardware recommendations

The current system specifications recommended for running the miner are:
Compared to the hardware requirements for running a validity checker, these standards are much higher — although they definitely deserve it. Since these will not increase in the presumed future, the money spent on Filecoin mining hardware will provide users with many years of reliable service, and they pay themselves many times. Think of investing as a small business for cloud storage. To launch a model on the current data hosting model, it will cost millions of dollars in infrastructure and logistics to get started. With Filecoin, you can do the same for a few thousand dollars.
Proceed to mining
Deals are the primary function of the Filecoin network, and it represents an agreement between a client and miners for a “storage” contract.
Once the customer decides to have a miner to store based on the available capacity, duration and price required, he secures sufficient funds in a linked portfolio to cover the total cost of the deal. The deal is then published once the mine accepts the storage agreement. By default, all Filecoin miners are set to automatically accept any deal that meets their criteria, although this can be disabled for miners who prefer to organize their deals manually.
After the deal is published, the customer prepares the data for storage and then transfers it to the miner. Upon receiving all the data, the miner fills in the data in a sector, closes it, and begins to provide proofs to the chain. Once the first confirmation is obtained, the customer can make sure the data is stored correctly, and the deal has officially started.
Throughout the deal, the miner provides continuous proofs to the chain. Clients gradually pay with money they previously closed. If there is missing or late evidence, the miner is punished. More information about this can be found in the Runtime, Cut and Penalties section of this page.
At Filecoin, miners earn two different types of rewards for their efforts: storage fees and reward prevention.
Storage fees are the fees that customers pay regularly after reaching a deal, in exchange for storing data. This fee is automatically deposited into the withdrawal portfolio associated with miners while they continue to perform their duties over time, and is locked for a short period upon receipt.
Block rewards are large sums given to miners calculated on a new block. Unlike storage fees, these rewards do not come from a linked customer; Instead, the new FIL “prints” the network as an inflationary and incentive measure for miners to develop the chain. All active miners on the network have a chance to get a block bonus, their chance to be directly proportional to the amount of storage space that is currently being contributed to the network.
Duration of operation, cutting and penalties
“Slashing” is a feature found in most blockchain protocols, and is used to punish miners who fail to provide reliable uptime or act maliciously against the network.
In Filecoin, miners are susceptible to two different types of cut: storage error cut, unanimously reduce error.
Storage Error Reduction is a term used to include a wider range of penalties, including error fees, sector penalties, and termination fees. Miners must pay these penalties if they fail to provide reliability of the sector or decide to leave the network voluntarily.
An error fee is a penalty that a miner incurs for each non-working day. Sector punishment: A penalty incurred by a miner of a disrupted sector for which no error was reported before the WindowPoSt inspection.
The sector will pay an error fee after the penalty of the sector once the error is discovered.
Termination Fee: A penalty that a miner incurs when a sector is voluntary or involuntarily terminated and removed from the network.
Cutting consensus error is the penalty that a miner incurs for committing consensus errors. This punishment applies to miners who have acted maliciously against the network consensus function.
Filecoin miners
Eight of the top 10 Felticoin miners are Chinese investors or companies, according to the blockchain explorer, while more companies are selling cloud mining contracts and distributed file sharing system hardware. CoinDesk’s Wolfe Chao wrote: “China’s craze for Filecoin may have been largely related to the long-standing popularity of crypto mining in the country overall, which is home to about 65% of the computing power on Bitcoin at discretion.”
With Filecoin approaching the launch of the mainnet blocknet — after several delays since the $ 200 million increase in 2017 — Chinese investors are once again speculating strongly about network mining devices and their premium prices.
Since Protocol Labs, the company behind Filecoin, released its “Test Incentives” program on June 9 that was scheduled to start in a week’s time, more than a dozen Chinese companies have started selling cloud mining contracts and hardware — despite important details such as economics Mining incentives on the main network are still endless.
Sales volumes to date for each of these companies can range from half a million to tens of millions of dollars, according to self-reported data on these platforms that CoinDesk has watched and interviews with several mining hardware manufacturers.
Filecoin’s goal is to build a distributed storage network with token rewards to spur storage hosting as a way to drive wider adoption. Protocol Labs launched a test network in December 2019. But the tokens mined in the testing environment so far are not representative of the true silicon coin that can be traded when the main network is turned on. Moreover, the mining incentive economics on testnet do not represent how final block rewards will be available on the main network.
However, data from Blockecoin’s blocknetin testnet explorers show that eight out of 10 miners with the most effective mining force on testnet are currently Chinese miners.
These eight miners have about 15 petabytes (PB) of effective storage mining power, accounting for more than 85% of the total test of 17.9 petable. For the context, 1 petabyte of hard disk storage = 1000 terabytes (terabytes) = 1 million gigabytes (GB).
Filecoin craze in China may be closely related to the long-standing popularity of crypt mining in the country overall, which is home to about 65% of the computing power on Bitcoin by estimation. In addition, there has been a lot of hype in China about foreign exchange mining since 2018, as companies promote all types of devices when the network is still in development.
“Encryption mining has always been popular in China,” said Andy Tien, co-founder of 1475, one of several mining hardware manufacturers in Philquin supported by prominent Chinese video indicators such as Fenbushi and Hashkey Capital.
“Even though the Velikoyen mining process is more technologically sophisticated, the idea of mining using hard drives instead of specialized machines like Bitcoin ASIC may be a lot easier for retailers to understand,” he said.
Meanwhile, according to Feixiaohao, a Chinese service comparable to CoinMarketCap, nearly 50 Chinese crypto exchanges are often somewhat unknown with some of the more well-known exchanges including Gate.io and Biki — have listed trading pairs for Filecoin currency contracts for USDT.
In bitcoin mining, at the current difficulty level, one segment per second (TH / s) fragmentation rate is expected to generate around 0.000008 BTC within 24 hours. The higher the number of TH / s, the greater the number of bitcoins it should be able to produce proportionately. But in Filecoin, the efficient mining force of miners depends on the amount of data stamped on the hard drive, not the total size of the hard drive.
To close data in the hard drive, the Filecoin miner still needs processing power, i.e. CPU or GPU as well as RAM. More powerful processors with improved software can confine data to the hard drive more quickly, so miners can combine more efficient mining energy faster on a given day.
As of this stage, there appears to be no transparent way at the network level for retail investors to see how much of the purchased hard disk drive was purchased which actually represents an effective mining force.
The U.S.-based Labs Protocol was behind Filecoin’s initial coin offer for 2017, which raised an astonishing $ 200 million.
This was in addition to a $ 50 million increase in private investment supported by notable venture capital projects including Sequoia, Anderson Horowitz and Union Square Ventures. CoinDk’s parent company, CoinDk, has also invested in Protocol Labs.
After rounds of delay, Protocol Protocols said in September 2019 that a testnet launch would be available around December 2019 and the main network would be rolled out in the first quarter of 2020.
The test started as promised, but the main network has been delayed again and is now expected to launch in August 2020. What is Filecoin mining process?
Filecoin mainly consists of three parts: the storage market (the chain), the blockecin Filecoin, and the search market (under the chain). Storage and research market in series and series respectively for security and efficiency. For users, the storage frequency is relatively low, and the security requirements are relatively high, so the storage process is placed on the chain. The retrieval frequency is much higher than the storage frequency when there is a certain amount of data. Given the performance problem in processing data on the chain, the retrieval process under the chain is performed. In order to solve the security issue of payment in the retrieval process, Filecoin adopts the micro-payment strategy. In simple terms, the process is to split the document into several copies, and every time the user gets a portion of the data, the corresponding fee is paid. Types of mines corresponding to Filecoin’s two major markets are miners and warehousers, among whom miners are primarily responsible for storing data and block packages, while miners are primarily responsible for data query. After the stable operation of the major Filecoin network in the future, the mining operator will be introduced, who is the main responsible for data maintenance.
In the initial release of Filecoin, the request matching mechanism was not implemented in the storage market and retrieval market, but the takeover mechanism was adopted. The three main parts of Filecoin correspond to three processes, namely the stored procedure, retrieval process, packaging and reward process. The following figure shows the simplified process and the income of the miners:
The Filecoin mining process is much more complicated, and the important factor in determining the previous mining profit is efficient storage. Effective storage is a key feature that distinguishes Filecoin from other decentralized storage projects. In Filecoin’s EC consensus, effective storage is similar to interest in PoS, which determines the likelihood that a miner will get the right to fill, that is, the proportion of miners effectively stored in the entire network is proportional to final mining revenue.
It is also possible to obtain higher effective storage under the same hardware conditions by improving the mining algorithm. However, the current increase in the number of benefits that can be achieved by improving the algorithm is still unknown.
It seeks to promote mining using Filecoin Discover
Filecoin announced Filecoin Discover — a step to encourage miners to join the Filecoin network. According to the company, Filecoin Discover is “an ever-growing catalog of numerous petabytes of public data covering literature, science, art, and history.” Miners interested in sharing can choose which data sets they want to store, and receive that data on a drive at a cost. In exchange for storing this verified data, miners will earn additional Filecoin above the regular block rewards for storing data. Includes the current catalog of open source data sets; ENCODE, 1000 Genomes, Project Gutenberg, Berkley Self-driving data, more projects, and datasets are added every day.
Ian Darrow, Head of Operations at Filecoin, commented on the announcement:
“Over 2.5 quintillion bytes of data are created every day. This data includes 294 billion emails, 500 million tweets and 64 billion messages on social media. But it is also climatology reports, disease tracking maps, connected vehicle coordinates and much more. It is extremely important that we maintain data that will serve as the backbone for future research and discovery”.
Miners who choose to participate in Filecoin Discover may receive hard drives pre-loaded with verified data, as well as setup and maintenance instructions, depending on the company. The Filecoin team will also host the Slack (fil-Discover-support) channel where miners can learn more.
Filecoin got its fair share of obstacles along the way. Last month Filecoin announced a further delay before its main network was officially launched — after years of raising funds.
In late July QEBR (OTC: QEBR) announced that it had ceded ownership of two subsidiaries in order to focus all of the company’s resources on building blockchain-based mining operations.
The QEBR technology team previously announced that it has proven its system as a Filecoin node valid with CPU, GPU, bandwidth and storage compatibility that meets all IPFS guidelines. The QEBR test system is connected to the main Filecoin blockchain and the already mined filecoin coin has already been tested.
“The disclosure of Sheen Boom and Jihye will allow our team to focus only on the upcoming global launch of Filecoin. QEBR branch, Shenzhen DZD Digital Technology Ltd. (“ DZD “), has a strong background in blockchain development, extraction Data, data acquisition, data processing, data technology research. We strongly believe Filecoin has the potential to be a leading blockchain-based cryptocurrency and will make every effort to make QEBR an important player when Mainecoin mainnet will be launched soon”.
IPFS and Filecoin
Filecoin and IPFS are complementary protocols for storing and sharing data in a decentralized network. While users are not required to use Filecoin and IPFS together, the two combined are working to resolve major failures in the current web infrastructure.
IPFS
It is an open source protocol that allows users to store and transmit verifiable data with each other. IPFS users insist on data on the network by installing it on their own device, to a third-party cloud service (known as Pinning Services), or through community-oriented systems where a group of individual IPFS users share resources to ensure the content stays live.
The lack of an integrated catalytic mechanism is the challenge Filecoin hopes to solve by allowing users to catalyze long-term distributed storage at competitive prices through the storage contract market, while maintaining the efficiency and flexibility that the IPFS network provides.
Using IPFS
In IPFS, the data is hosted by the required data installation nodes. For data to persist while the user node is offline, users must either rely on their other peers to install their data voluntarily or use a central install service to store data.
Peer-to-peer reliance caching data may be a good thing as one or multiple organizations share common files on an internal network, or where strong social contracts can be used to ensure continued hosting and preservation of content in the long run. Most users in an IPFS network use an installation service.
Using Filecoin
The last option is to install your data in a decentralized storage market, such as Filecoin. In Filecoin’s structure, customers make regular small payments to store data when a certain availability, while miners earn those payments by constantly checking the integrity of this data, storing it, and ensuring its quick recovery. This allows users to motivate Filecoin miners to ensure that their content will be live when it is needed, a distinct advantage of relying only on other network users as required using IPFS alone.
Filecoin, powered by IPFS
It is important to know that Filecoin is built on top of IPFS. Filecoin aims to be a very integrated and seamless storage market that takes advantage of the basic functions provided by IPFS, they are connected to each other, but can be implemented completely independently of each other. Users do not need to interact with Filecoin in order to use IPFS.
Some advantages of sharing Filecoin with IPFS:
Of all the decentralized storage projects, Filecoin is undoubtedly the most interested, and IPFS has been running stably for two years, fully demonstrating the strength of its core protocol.
Filecoin’s ability to obtain market share from traditional central storage depends on end-user experience and storage price. Currently, most Filecoin nodes are posted in the IDC room. Actual deployment and operation costs are not reduced compared to traditional central cloud storage, and the storage process is more complicated.
PoRep and PoSt, which has a large number of proofs of unknown operation, are required to cause the actual storage cost to be so, in the early days of the release of Filecoin. The actual cost of storing data may be higher than the cost of central cloud storage, but the initial storage node may reduce the storage price in order to obtain block rewards, which may result in the actual storage price lower than traditional central cloud storage.
In the long term, Filecoin still needs to take full advantage of its P2P storage, convert storage devices from specialization to civil use, and improve its algorithms to reduce storage costs without affecting user experience. The storage problem is an important problem to be solved in the blockchain field, so a large number of storage projects were presented at the 19th Web3 Summit. IPFS is an important part of Web3 visibility. Its development will affect the development of Web3 to some extent. Likewise, Web3 development somewhat determines the future of IPFS. Filecoin is an IPFS-based storage class project initiated by IPFS. There is no doubt that he is highly expected.
Resources :
  1. https://www.coindesk.com/filecoin-pushes-back-final-testing-phase-announces-calibration-period-for-miners
  2. https://docs.filecoin.io/mine/#types-of-miners https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/inside-the-craze-for-filecoin-crypto-mining-in-china-2020-07-12؟amp
  3. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/qebr-streamlines-holdings-to-concentrate-on-filecoin-development-and-mining-301098731.html
  4. https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2020/05/161200-filecoin-seeks-to-boost-mining-with-filecoin-discove
  5. https://zephyrnet.com/filecoin-seeks-to-boost-mining-with-filecoin-discove
  6. https://docs.filecoin.io/introduction/ipfs-and-filecoin/#filecoin-powered-by-ipfs
submitted by CoinEx_Institution to filecoin [link] [comments]

It's time to make a millionaire and give the gift of giving! [Drawing Thread #36]

OBLIGATORY REDDIT GOLD AND PLATINUM EDIT: Please stop. You keep making me lose my editing virginity. Thanks though, kind strangers, but still stop. I don't deserve this.
SECOND EDIT: I also added a bullet point on downloading the list of comment IDs. For a quick rundown, I rescheduled it to 5:00 UTC, if you would like to replicate this for yourself.
THIRD EDIT: There has been a discrepency. Comments will be retrieved again at 6:00 UTC.
FOURTH EDIT: I overslept and now I am depressed. Comments will be retrieved again at 13:00 UTC.

Merry Giving of Thankfulness!

TL;DR: Leave a comment on this thread. A random user will be chosen, and everyone donates a dollar to make a millionaire. You are welcome to spread this thread via upvoting, telling friends and family, and sharing on social media! If you'd like to be reminded to enter the next drawing by RemindMeBot, click here!
What is this, anyway?
Three years ago, a Redditor posted an idea in /Showerthoughts that speculated the fact, if a million people picked a certain Redditor and all donated just $1, they would have the power to make someone a millionaire.
This subreddit is an embodiment of that showerthought, and the monthly drawings are the attempts to make it happen.
We need your help to keep this running, which amounts to only $1 a month to make someone's day. In the long term, that’s $120 every decade, which is a much more affordable price than other expenses. How does it work? Below, you will find an explanation on entering, rules to keep in mind, the selection, and other important things to note.
How to enter:
  • REQUIRED: Leave only one (1) top level comment in reply to this thread! Replying to other comments will not count. It is highly recommended to comment "RemindMe! 3 days Donation for /millionairemakers", which will remind you via PM to donate.
Important Rules:
  • Only ONE top level comment per person (replies and subsequent-level comments aren't included), but feel free to reply to other comments. Making duplicate top level comments may result in exclusion from entering. Go to me to ensure you don't accidentally double comment.
  • If, by any chance, you do double comment, delete any extra duplicates ASAP, ideally before the thread is locked in 24 hours, as any chosen draws found to violate this will not be eligible to win, and will be banned from the subreddit.
  • Your account must be older than 30 days with some amount of activity. Throwaway accounts with very minimal activity will also not be eligible. This is to prevent multiple entries from the same person.
How will the winner be picked and how can you donate?
  • After 24 hours, this thread will close, and the method of selection will begin.
  • While attempts to make the selection method similar to 2017’s have been performed, it still varies from the original. For an example from a prior drawing, see [Draw #33]. For archival purposes, please click here for the original selection method.
  • Method's TL;DR: Your number is assigned by sorting the comments by old, so the first commenter will be 1, and the list of comments will be publicly released. The subreddit then waits for a randomly generated block (a string of numbers) from Bitcoin's blockchain, after a preselected date and time, and calculates the winner using a formula described in the posts mentioned above.
  • Comment IDs are downloaded at 2:00 UTC 5:00 UTC, three six hours following the thread being locked. There will be two trial runs prior to 2:00 UTC 5:00 UTC, and one trial run thirty minutes after. If it is shown that deletion of comments are occurring between any of the trial runs, or technical difficulties, the retrieval of the comments will be delayed by an hour, following the same procedures.
  • To determine if you are on the list, please go to your comment and save it. The comment ID is what gets recorded and selected, which looks like this: e3yxpj4.
  • The user who created the winning comment will be informed of their luck and will provide any information necessary for their chosen payment methods (mods will help set this up if needed).
  • The generous Reddit community donates to this lucky person, hopefully making some worthy soul a millionaire! A donation table will be stickied to the winner’s post, giving users the freedom in how they donate.
  • The lucky Redditor follows up with a thank you within the next days, revealing to the community exactly how much was raised and thanking their generosity.
Reminders
  • Take the time you have available now to setup your PayPal, Square Cash, and Google Wallet account, and/or cryptocurrency wallets. (Note: Some services may not be available depending on where you reside.)
  • To buy any cryptocurrencies, you may use Coinbase for purchases using your bank account.
  • To store cryptocurrencies, there are many accessible wallets, and if you win, you will be guided on which ones to download. For Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash, it’s recommended to use the Electrum and Electron Cash wallet for Mac, Linux, and PC.
  • Please try your best to donate a $1, no matter who wins. Every single dollar, cent, anything really counts, so please take the effort to remember and go through with it.
  • If you want to be reminded to donate, please comment "RemindMe! 3 days Donation for /millionairemakers".
  • Spread the word! The more people who participate, the better this gets for everyone! There has been a correlation between this subreddit making it in /all and an increase in donations.
  • Try to cross-post to relevant subs, and upvote. There is a correlation between reaching /all and the amount of donations for the winner. (Please don't spam other subs though. We're not trying to make any enemies here.)
  • If you are under 18, please talk to your parents to get their consent to participate and use their help to setup a PayPal account.
MOST IMPORTANTLY
Remember, this is about generosity, making history, and coming together to make someone's life better. It takes three minutes to donate a bit to the winner, whether you're well off and want to donate a couple buckeroos, or going through tough times and can only donate a few pennies. Every cent counts.
Note about legality: This is NOT a lottery. You don't have to pay to enter. No prizes are given away directly by the moderators of this subreddit (the moderators will never even touch your donations; this is done voluntarily). As for gift taxes, according to the IRS they're generally paid by the donor, and any donation under $14,000 is not taxable.
If a lone $1 can get you good feelings, imagine the possibilities with $1,000,000. You can go invite your family to the Thwnksgiving table, take them out, or prepare for the winter season!
One million dollars can be enough to change someone’s life. Spread the word: have your friends and family comment, post the link to your friendly-neighborhood social media network, and share it to anyone interested.
LET'S THANK MAKE A MILLIONAIRE!
Thanks for your patience.
I'm thankful for all of you.
Now give your dollar!
submitted by lilfruini to millionairemakers [link] [comments]

New Lands, or New Eyes? | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - April 2020

The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes, but in having new eyes.
- Marcel Proust, Remembrance of Things Past
This is my forty-first portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $697 582
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $40 709
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $76 583
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $110 563
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $174 864
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $31 505
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $215 805
Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 625
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 323
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $5 904
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $119 458
Secured physical gold – $19 269
Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $12 234
Bitcoin – $158 360
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 144
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 435
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 471
Total portfolio value: $1 694 834 (+$127 888 or 8.2%)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 40.9% (4.1% under)
Global shares – 21.7%
Emerging markets shares – 2.2%
International small companies – 3.0%
Total international shares – 26.9% (3.1% under)
Total shares – 67.8% (7.2% under)
Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over)
Australian bonds – 4.5%
International bonds – 9.9%
Total bonds – 14.4% (0.6% under)
Gold – 8.2%
Bitcoin – 9.3%
Gold and alternatives – 17.5% (7.5% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
Comments
This month featured a sharp recovery in the overall portfolio, reducing the size of the large losses experienced over the previous month.
The portfolio increased by over $127 000, representing a growth of 8.2 per cent, which is the largest month-on-month growth on record. This now puts the portfolio value significantly above the levels of a year ago.
[Chart]
The expansion in the value of the portfolio has occurred due to an increase in Australian and global equities markets, as well as substantial increases the price of Bitcoin. This is effectively the mirror image of the simultaneous negative movements last month.
From a nadir of initial pessimism in late March, markets have generally moved upwards as debate continues about the path of a likely economic recession and recovery from Coronavirus impacts over the coming year.
[Chart]
First quarter distributions from the Australian and Global Shares ETFs (A200, VAS and VGS) were received this month. These were too early to fully reflect the sharp economic activity impacts of the Coronavirus and lockdown period on company earnings.
Despite this, they were significantly down on a cents per unit basis on the equivalent distributions last year. Totalling around $2700, these distributions formed part of new contributions to Vanguard's Australian shares ETF (VAS).
The rapid falls in equity have many participants looking forward to a return to normalcy, or at least more open to the pleasing ideas that nerves have been held in a market fall comparable to 2000 or 2008-09, and that markets now represent clear value. As discussed last month, there should be caution and some humility about these questions, if some historical perspective is taken. As an example, the largest global equity market in the world - the United States - remains at valuation levels well above those experienced in previous market lows.
Portfolio alternatives - tracking changes under the surface
A striking feature of the past year or so has been the expansion of the non-traditional or 'alternatives' components of gold and Bitcoin as a proportion of the overall portfolio. Currently, when combined these alternative assets form a greater part of the portfolio than at any point over the past two years.
The chart below shows that since January 2019 the gold and Bitcoin component of the portfolio has lifted from around its long term target level of 10 per cent, to now make up over 17 per cent of the portfolio. In the space of the last four months alone, it has lifted from 13 per cent.
[Chart]
With no purchases of either gold or Bitcoin over the period, the growth in the chart is the result of two reinforcing factors:
A substantial fall in the value of the equity portfolio - reaching nearly $200 000 since the recent February market peak has naturally and mathematically led to a commensurate increase the proportion of other assets.
Increases in the value of gold and Bitcoin - have also played a role with a total appreciation of around $150 000 across the two assets over the past 16 months.
In fact, the value gold holdings alone have increased by over 40 per cent since January last year. Further appreciation of either gold or Bitcoin prices, particularly if any further falls in equity markets occur, could easily place the portfolio in the same position as experienced in January 2018.
At that time these alternative assets made up 1 in every 5 dollars of the portfolio, an unusual, and in that case temporary phenomenon. This represents a different portfolio and risk exposure than that envisaged in my portfolio investment plan.
Yet, equally it is critical to recall what the circumstances would likely be for this to arise. Simultaneously high gold and Bitcoin prices are more likely to occur in a situation of severe capital market dislocation, or falling confidence. On the other hand, should confidence and equity market growth be restored, both of these portfolio components could fall back to lower levels.
It is difficult to tell which state of the world will eventuate, a key reason for diversification across asset types. United States government debt is already at record levels - equivalent in real terms to levels last seen when it emerged out of the Second World War - despite no similar national effort having being undertaken.
Future inflation can potentially partly manage this burden, however, the last sustained episode of persistently high inflation rates during the decade of the 1970s spelt negative real returns. Where investors expect future inflation or financially 'repressive' policies of inflation exceeding interest rates, the economic growth required to 'grow out' of debt can be affected.
At this point, my inclination is to address this circumstance gradually through time by re-balancing of distributions and new contributions, rather than to realise capital gains by selling assets at one, or several, points in time.
Chasing down the lines - falling average spending in lockdown
Since the implementation of lockdown restrictions, average credit card expenditure has fallen by nearly 30 per cent. This has taken credit card expenditure to lower than any similar period in the past six years.
Partly as a result of this - as the chart below shows - a new development is occurring. The previously fairly steady card expenses line (red) is now starting to bend down towards, or 'chase', the rolling average distributions line (in blue).
[Chart]
The declining distributions line is a result of some previous high distributions gradually falling outside of the data 'window' for the rolling three-year comparison of distributions and expenditure.
This intriguing picture will probably change before a cross-over occurs, as lockdown restrictions ease, and as the data feeding into the three year average slowly changes over time.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 77.7% 104.6%
Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 94.8% 127.6%
Total expenses – $89 000 pa 76.0% 102.3%
Summary
Last month market volatility theoretically took progress down to below most of my financial independence benchmarks on an 'All Assets' (i.e. portfolio and superannuation assets) basis. This position has reversed this month. As markets have recovered and with additional spare time in the lockdown period, I have continued to seek out and think about different perspectives on the history and future of markets.
Yet it must be recognised that there is a natural limit to the utility of these ponderings. The shape of the future is always uncertain, and in this world, confident comparisons and analogies with past events can be perilous. Comparisons with past periods of financial market crises miss the centrality of government action as a causal influence on the path of virus affected economies and markets.
A virus and recovery is not the same as a global financial crisis originating in housing finance markets addressed through monetary and fiscal stimulus. Most developed country governments have quickly applied the same, if not larger versions of responses as applied in the global financial crisis, a distinguishing step that also makes analogies with the great depression era problematic.
Similarly, a pandemic is not hitting and interacting with the shattered economic and health systems of the 1918-19 Spanish flu. Overlaying all of this is the imperfect and partially disconnected relationship between the economy today, and equity markets that discount and focus on the future.
This makes all history's lessons more than usually caveated and conditional. One avenue for managing through these times is to focus on what does not change - the psychological difficulty of accepting alterations in financial circumstances and the capacity of markets movements to cruelly surprise us in both timing and direction.
One of the best texts to read to get a sense of both of these in such times is Benjamin Roth's A Great Depression Diary. This tells of the day-by-day changes observed in everyday urban life and investment markets, from the point of view of an American small retail investor living through the times.
This month also saw the exciting news that Pat the Shuffler and Strong Money Australia are combining efforts to produce a new podcast. Speaking of which, Big ERN's reflections on the current implications of sharemarket market movements for seekers of financial independence have been filled with insight and wisdom.
This interesting piece (video) - the latest in a 'virus' market series - from New York University's Professor of Finance Aswath Damodaran on asset performances through the past few months - is a more technical and detailed discussion of how markets have re-priced businesses and profits. Finally, the recently released Hmmminar interview series provides a more heterodox set of speakers and ideas on current markets, presented by Grant Williams.
Unlike predicting the future, seeking out different perspectives on it is perhaps the easiest it has ever been in history. While it is not always possible to change the course taken, it is possible to look at the same horizon with new eyes.
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

The Blackmail Email Scam (part 4)

THIS THREAD IS NOW ARCHIVED, THE LATEST THREAD CAN BE FOUND HERE: https://old.reddit.com/Scams/comments/g8jqnthe_blackmail_email_scam_part_5/

TEXT, PHONE CALL, AND PHYSICAL MAIL VARIANTS ARE COVERED IN THE LATEST THREAD.

IF YOU RECEIVE A BLACKMAIL EMAIL, PLEASE REDACT THE PERSONAL INFORMATION AND POST IT AS A COMMENT ON THIS THREAD SO THAT OTHERS WHO RECEIVE THE SAME EMAIL CAN FIND IT THROUGH GOOGLE.

FIRST THREAD: https://www.reddit.com/Scams/comments/8gsjba/the_blackmail_email_scam/

SECOND THREAD: https://www.reddit.com/Scams/comments/9srjen/the_blackmail_email_scam_part_2/###

THIRD THREAD: https://old.reddit.com/Scams/comments/biv65o/the_blackmail_email_scam_part_3/

There have been many recent posts about the blackmail email scam, so I have written this post and will keep it stickied until the posts about the scam die down. If you are reading this because you have received one of these emails and you are worried, you can stop worrying. The blackmail email scam is a spam campaign that is sent out to thousands of addresses at a time. In al cases, the threats are lies and you do not have anything to worry about. In many cases, the emails will contain information about you such as your name, part or all of your phone number, and your password. The emails may also look like they were sent from your own email address. The data is gathered from data breaches, and if the email looks like it came from your account that is due to email spoofing. You can use the service Have I Been Pwned? to see if you are in any publicly known data breaches. If you receive an email that contains a password that you currently use, you should immediately change that. Current recommended password guidelines say that you should use a different, complex password for every account. You can generate and save passwords using a password manager for convenience. You should also be using two factor authentication using an app like Google Authenticator instead of receiving codes through SMS.
Here are some news articles about this scam. Here is a story from Brian Krebs, and here is a story from the New York Times.
Below are a few examples, but if you receive an email that is similar but not the same as the examples you see, that does not matter and does not mean that the email is real. The spammers constantly switch up their templates in order to bypass spam filters, so it's normal to receive an email that hasn't yet been posted online.
Hey there
So I am the hacker who cracked your email address and device a few weeks back.
You typed in your pwd on one of the sites you visited, and I intercepted that.
Here is your password from (redacted) upon time of compromise: (redacted)
Obviously you can can change it, or even already changed it.
However it won't really matter, my malware modified it every time.
Do not really try to contact me personally or find me.
Via your email, I uploaded harmful code to your Operation System.
I saved your entire contacts together with buddies, fellow workers, loved ones along with a entire history of visits to the World wide web resources.
Also I set up a Virus on your system.
You aren't my only target, I generally lock computers and ask for a ransom.
But I was hit by the web pages of romantic material that you normally stop by.
I am in shock of your own fantasies! I have never ever noticed anything at all like this!
Consequently, when you had enjoyment on piquant web-sites (you know what I am talking about!) I made screenshot with utilizing my program from your camera of yours device.
There after, I put together them to the content of the currently viewed site.
There will certainly be giggling when I send these pics to your connections!
Nevertheless I am certain you do not need this.
Therefore, I expect to have payment from you for my silence.
I feel $859 is an satisfactory price for this!
Pay with Bitcoin.
My Bitcoin wallet is xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
If you do not really understand how to do this - submit in to Google 'how to transfer money to the bitcoin wallet'. It is easy.
Immediately after getting the given amount, all your files will be right away destroyed automatically. My computer virus will also get rid of itself through your operating-system.
My Trojan viruses have auto alert, so I know when this specific e mail is read.
I give you 2 days (48 hours) to make a payment.
If this does not occur - just about all your associates will get outrageous pictures from your darkish secret life and your system will be blocked as well after two days.
Do not end up being foolish!
Police or buddies won't support you for sure ...
P.S I can provide you with recommendation for the future. Do not type in your security passwords on risky web pages.
I wish for your wisdom.
Bon voyage.
Your computer device was attacked by the malicious app . Whats the trouble? I placed my malicious agent on a erotica portal, you clicked on this data and promptly adjusted the malware to your computer . The hostile program made your selfie-camera shooting and I enjoy the videotape with you dash your doodle. In next 5 hours this hostile program copied all your contacts. Right now, I receive your all your contact information and video with you masturbating, and now if you wish me to destroy all the data affect payment 350 $USD in BTC digital currency. Other way I want forward that this record to all your contacts . I forward you my Bitcoin wallet - XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX You possess 27 hours after reading. In a case if I possess transaction I am going to undo that this record once for all. I beg pardon for my mistakes- I live in China . P.S. this postal address, I have thieved it
Good day,
If you had been more careful while caressing yourself, I wouldn't worry you. I don't think that playing with yourself is very bad, but when all your colleagues, relatives and friends get a video recording of it - it is definitely bad for you.
I placed malicious software on a website for adults (with porn) which was visited by you. When the target taps on a play button, your device starts recording the screen and all cameras on your device begin to work.
Moreover, my program allows a remote desktop connection with keylogger function from the device, so I could collect all contacts from your e-mail, messengers and other social networks. I'm writing on this e-mail cuz it's your working address, so you must check it.
I suppose that three hundred twenty usd is good enough for this little misstep. I made a split screen video (recorded from your screen (u have interesting tastes ) and camera ooooooh... its awful AF)
So it's your choice. If you want me to erase this compromising evidence, use my Bitcoin wallet address: XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX You have one day after opening my message; I put a special tracking pixel in it, so when you will open it I will see. If you want me to show you the proofs, reply to this message and I will send my creation to five contacts that I got from your contacts.
P.S. You can try to complain to the police, but I don't think that they can help, the investigation will last for 5 month- I'm from Ukraine - so I dgf lmao
Hey there
So I am the hacker who cracked your email address and device a few weeks back.
You typed in your pwd on one of the sites you visited, and I intercepted that.
Here is your password from (redacted) upon time of compromise: (redacted)
Obviously you can can change it, or even already changed it.
However it won't really matter, my malware modified it every time.
Do not really try to contact me personally or find me.
Via your email, I uploaded harmful code to your Operation System.
I saved your entire contacts together with buddies, fellow workers, loved ones along with a entire history of visits to the World wide web resources.
Also I set up a Virus on your system.
You aren't my only target, I generally lock computers and ask for a ransom.
But I was hit by the web pages of romantic material that you normally stop by.
I am in shock of your own fantasies! I have never ever noticed anything at all like this!
Consequently, when you had enjoyment on piquant web-sites (you know what I am talking about!) I made screenshot with utilizing my program from your camera of yours device.
There after, I put together them to the content of the currently viewed site.
There will certainly be giggling when I send these pics to your connections!
Nevertheless I am certain you do not need this.
Therefore, I expect to have payment from you for my silence.
I feel $859 is an satisfactory price for this!
Pay with Bitcoin.
My Bitcoin wallet is xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
If you do not really understand how to do this - submit in to Google 'how to transfer money to the bitcoin wallet'. It is easy.
Immediately after getting the given amount, all your files will be right away destroyed automatically. My computer virus will also get rid of itself through your operating-system.
My Trojan viruses have auto alert, so I know when this specific e mail is read.
I give you 2 days (48 hours) to make a payment.
If this does not occur - just about all your associates will get outrageous pictures from your darkish secret life and your system will be blocked as well after two days.
Do not end up being foolish!
Police or buddies won't support you for sure ...
P.S I can provide you with recommendation for the future. Do not type in your security passwords on risky web pages.
I wish for your wisdom.
Bon voyage.
I Have YOUR code. I rule phone xxxx
I SENT this newsletter from YOUR ACCOUNT.
I look your device.
I am in daze of your sex act fantasies!
I made backup your contacts and files. I made screenshots from your digital camera of yours device.
I want 888 $ to my (Bitcoin
My )Bitcoin currency
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
If YOU don't transaction )Bitcoin. I share my quake of your golden age of porn fantasies with your contacts!
If you do not know how to do this - enter into Google/
=how to transfer money to a Bitcoin& wallet-
Time 30 hours.
This excellent post as Subway & Dairy Queen.
Hello!
I'm a programmer who cracked your email account and device about half year ago. You entered a password on one of the insecure site you visited, and I catched it.
Of course you can will change your password, or already made it. But it doesn't matter, my rat software update it every time.
Please don't try to contact me or find me, it is impossible, since I sent you an email from your email account.
Through your e-mail, I uploaded malicious code to your Operation System. I saved all of your contacts with friends, colleagues, relatives and a complete history of visits to the Internet resources. Also I installed a rat software on your device and long tome spying for you.
You are not my only victim, I usually lock devices and ask for a ransom. But I was struck by the sites of intimate content that you very often visit.
I am in shock of your reach fantasies! Wow! I've never seen anything like this! I did not even know that SUCH content could be so exciting!
So, when you had fun on intime sites (you know what I mean!) I made screenshot with using my program from your camera of yours device. After that, I jointed them to the content of the currently viewed site.
Will be funny when I send these photos to your contacts! And if your relatives see it? BUT I'm sure you don't want it. I definitely would not want to ...
I will not do this if you pay me a little amount. I think $877 is a nice price for it!
I accept only Bitcoins. My BTC wallet: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
If you have difficulty with this - Ask Google "how to make a payment on a bitcoin wallet". It's easy. After receiving the above amount, all your data will be immediately removed automatically. My virus will also will be destroy itself from your operating system.
My Trojan have auto alert, after this email is looked, I will be know it!
You have 2 days (48 hours) for make a payment. If this does not happen - all your contacts will get crazy shots with your dirty life! And so that you do not obstruct me, your device will be locked (also after 48 hours)
Do not take this frivolously! This is the last warning! Various security services or antiviruses won't help you for sure (I have already collected all your data).
Here are the recommendations of a professional: Antiviruses do not help against modern malicious code. Just do not enter your passwords on unsafe sites!
I hope you will be prudent. Bye.
Same as before but they increased the amount
I got an order from someone to kill you and your family
but I am far from your house
if you still love your family, I ask you to transfer 0.1 BTC to me.
If you report this email, I will immediately kill your family.
FORWARD THIS MAIL TO WHOEVER IS IMPORTANT IN YOUR COMPANY AND CAN MAKE DECISION!
We Hacked network. We Caught Communications. We Backuped DATA And DOCUMENTS. We send this mail to you in YOUR account.
After analyzing documents. We found Illegal activity - HIDING TAXES.
That we want?
I want two (2) Bitcoin To wallet Bitcoin. 1Dz7DbQmE7SNm3C5mb9syPcctgZECcCEbL
That we do if you don't pay bitcoin?
We send these Documents and Proofs to your Tax Department.
And in this time Your network will be DDoS. Read that in this link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denial-of-service\_attack
We are locking your operation system. Our friends, WannaCry, ready start and waiting command. Read that in this link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WannaCry\_ransomware\_attack
This is our guarantee, that you don't clean evidence and building a protection policy.
If you don't pay by in 7 days, attack will start.
Attack including.
1.DDOS 2.Locking operation system 3.Sending all documents in Tax Departament
Yours service going down permanently and price to stop will increase to Four (4) BTC, Price will go up one (1) BTC for every day of the attack.
This is not a joke.
Our attacks are extremely powerful - sometimes over 1 Tbps per second. And we pass CloudFlare and others remote protections! So, no cheap protection will help.
Prevent this problem all with just Two (2) BTC Pay to our wallet Bitcoin. 1Dz7DbQmE7SNm3C5mb9syPcctgZECcCEbL
AND YOU WILL NEVER AGAIN HEAR FROM US!
If you read, hear fake-experts and assure yourself that this is not true. Remember that they are not responsible and your life don't important him. Their business is to speak and make money. Your business to do and make money and stay freedom.
All mistakes in text we do specily.
Bitcoin is anonymous, nobody will ever know you cooperated.
Time started after open this mail. To track the reading of a message and the actions in it, I use the facebook pixel. Read that in this link
Hello!
I am a hacker who has access to your operating system.
I also have full access to your account.
I've been watching you for a few months now.
The fact is that you were infected with malware through an adult site that you visited.
If you are not familiar with this, I will explain.
Trojan Virus gives me full access and control over a computer or other device.
This means that I can see everything on your screen, turn on the camera and microphone, but you do not know about it.
I also have access to all your contacts and all your correspondence.
Why your antivirus did not detect malware?
Answer: My malware uses the driver, I update its signatures every 4 hours so that your antivirus is silent.
I made a video showing how you satisfy yourself in the left half of the screen, and in the right half you see the video that you watched.
With one click of the mouse, I can send this video to all your emails and contacts on social networks.
I can also post access to all your e-mail correspondence and messengers that you use.
If you want to prevent this,
transfer the amount of $500 to my bitcoin address (if you do not know how to do this, write to Google: "Buy Bitcoin").
My bitcoin address (BTC Wallet) is: x
After receiving the payment, I will delete the video and you will never hear me again.
I give you 50 hours (more than 2 days) to pay.
I have a notice reading this letter, and the timer will work when you see this letter.
Filing a complaint somewhere does not make sense because this email cannot be tracked like my bitcoin address.
I do not make any mistakes.
If I find that you have shared this message with someone else, the video will be immediately distributed.
Best regards.
Hey, I know your password is:
Your computer was infected with my malware, RAT (Remote Administration Tool), your browser wasn't updated / patched, in such case it's enough to just visit some website where my iframe is placed to get automatically infected, if you want to find out more - Google: "Drive-by exploit".
My malware gave me full access and control over your computer, meaning, I got access to all your accounts (see password above) and I can see everything on your screen, turn on your camera or microphone and you won't even notice about it.
I collected all your private data and I was spying on you, I RECORDED (through your webcam) embarrassing moments of you, you know what I mean!
After that I removed my malware to not leave any traces.
I can publish all your private data everywhere and I can send the videos to all your contacts, post it on social network, publish it on the whole web, including the darknet, where the sick people are!
Only you can prevent me from doing this and only I can help you out in this situation.
Transfer exactly 1200$ with the current bitcoin (BTC) price to my bitcoin address.
It's a very good offer, compared to all that horrible shit that will happen if I publish everything!
You can easily buy bitcoin here: www.paxful.com , www.coingate.com , www.coinbase.com , or check for bitcoin ATM near you, or Google for other exchanger. You can send the bitcoin directly to my address, or create your own wallet first here: www.login.blockchain.com/en/#/signup/ , then receive and send to mine.
My bitcoin address is:
Copy and paste my address, it's (cAsE-sEnSEtiVE)
I give you 3 days time to transfer the bitcoin!
As I got access to this email account, I will know if this email has already been read. If you get this email multiple times, it's to make sure you read it and after payment you can ignore it. After receiving the payment, I will remove everything and you can life your live in peace like before.
Next time update your browser before browsing the web!
НЕLLО!
I’m going to cut to thе chӓsе.I know ӓbout thе sеcrеt you ӓrе kееping from your wifе.Morе importӓntly,I hӓvе еvidеncе of whӓt you hӓvе bееn hiding.I won’t go into thе spеcifics hеrе in cӓsе your wifе intеrcеpts this,but you know whӓt I ӓm tӓlking ӓbout.
You don’t know mе pеrsonӓlly ӓnd nobody hirеd mе to look into you.Nor did I go out looking to burn you.It’s just your bӓd luck thӓt I stumblеd ӓcross your misӓdvеnturеs whilе.I thеn put in morе timе thӓn I probӓbly should hӓvе looking into your lifе.Frӓnkly,I ӓm rеӓdy to forgеt ӓll ӓbout you ӓnd lеt you gеt on with your lifе.And I ӓm going to givе you two options thӓt will ӓccomplish thӓt vеry thing.Thosе two options ӓrе to еithеr ignorе this lеttеr,or simply pӓy mе $822.Lеt’s еxӓminе thosе two options in morе dеtӓil.
Option 1 is to ignorе this lеttеr.Lеt mе tеll you whӓt will hӓppеn if you chosе this pӓth.I will tӓkе this еvidеncе ӓnd sеnd it to your wifе. And ӓs insurӓncе ӓgӓinst you intеrcеpting it bеforе your wifе gеts it,I will ӓlso sеnd copiеs to hеr friеnds ӓnd fӓmily.So,Evеn if you dеcidе to comе clеӓn with your wifе,it won’t protеct hеr from thе humiliӓtion shе will fееl whеn hеr friеnds ӓnd fӓmily find out your sordid dеtӓils from mе.
Option 2 is to pӓy mе $822.Wе’ll cӓll this my ‘confidеntiӓlity fее.’Now lеt mе tеll you whӓt hӓppеns if you choosе this pӓth.Your sеcrеt rеmӓins your sеcrеt.You go on with your lifе ӓs though nonе of this еvеr hӓppеnеd.Though you mӓy wӓnt to do ӓ bеttеr job ӓt kееping your misdееds sеcrеt in thе futurе.
At this point you mӓy bе thinking,‘I’ll just go to thе cops.’Which is why I hӓvе tӓkеn stеps to еnsurе this lеttеr cӓnnot bе trӓcеd bӓck to mе.So thӓt won’t hеlp,ӓnd it won’t stop thе еvidеncе from dеstroying your lifе.I’m not looking to brеӓk your bӓnk.I just wӓnt to bе compеnsӓtеd for thе timе I put into invеstigӓting you. $822 will closе thе books on thӓt.
Lеt’s ӓssumе you hӓvе dеcidеd to mӓkе ӓll this go ӓwӓy ӓnd pӓy mе thе confidеntiӓlity fее.In kееping with my strӓtеgy to not go to jӓil,wе will not mееt in pеrson ӓnd thеrе will bе no physicӓl еxchӓngе of cӓsh.You will pӓy mе ӓnonymously using bitcoin.If you wӓnt to kееp your sеcrеt thеn sеnd $822 in bitcoin to thе Rеcеiving Bitcoin Addrеss listеd bеlow.Pӓymеnt must bе rеcеivеd within 1 dӓys of thе post.
You should mӓkе ӓ trӓnsӓction of using bitcoins (cryptocurrеnsy): x
[Bitcoin dеtӓils]
Tеll no onе whӓt you will bе using thе bitcoin for or thеy mӓy not givе it to you.Thе procеdurе to obtӓin bitcoin cӓn tӓkе ӓ dӓy or two so do not put it off.Agӓin pӓymеnt must bе rеcеivеd within 1 dӓys of this lеttеr’s post mӓrkеd dӓtе.If I don’t rеcеivе thе bitcoin by thе dеӓdlinе,I will go ӓhеӓd ӓnd rеlеӓsе thе еvidеncе to еvеryonе.If you go thӓt routе,thеn thе lеӓst you could do is tеll your wifе so shе cӓn comе up with ӓn еxcusе to prеpӓrе hеr friеnds ӓnd fӓmily bеforе thеy find out.Thе clock is ticking.
And here are some common keywords used in the email so that this thread can be found by people Googling the email:
"Marlware, international hacker group, No‌ p‌erso‌n has co‌mp‌ensat‌ed, very o‌wn vid‌eo‌ cli‌p, software on the adult, porno sitio, one of your pass word, .br, specific pixel, sexual content web portal, a malware on the adult, a malware on the, double-screen, is a reasonable price tag for our little secret, you have a good taste lmao, I placed a malware on the adult vids, your browser began operating as a RDP, had been abusing yourself in front of computer display, you are one of those people that downloaded the malicious, I made a split-screen video, While you were watching the video, your web browser acted as, malware on the porn website and guess what, an unique pixel, you jerked off while watching an online video, When you pressed the play button the virus begins saving all the things thru, ja.scr, My malicious soft started your front cam, and also send the video link to all of yourfriends, I infected your gadget with a malware and now, AnywaysI downloaded all contacts, my program quickly got into your system, To a time where you jerk off watching","For the present moment I have at my disposal all, When you arouse sexually watching porno, In such a way all needed compromising material and contact, All information to yours SNSs user accounts, You watched sexual content portal and toss","Hello! WannaCry is back! All your, in front of the screen browsing adult stuff, As you flog the dummy watching, U are going to be offered 5 days after checking this notice, RAT 68006, the damnific malware, pastime and entertainment there, not my single victim, beat the dummy, buff the muffin, choke a chicken, front camera capturing video, with you frigging, with you chaturbating, with you masturbating, web digicam, U are going to have 5 dayss, i utilize just hacked wi, pressured this trojan to, glue a pair of videos, glue two videos, the RAT, if you want me to destroy this whole video, downloaded all contacts from your computer, your list of contacts or relatives will, I made a video that shows how you masturbate, hacked you through a virus in an ad on a porn website, my illiteracy, nоt mind on my illiterаcy, I рilfered all рrivy bаckground, videоtaре with yоur masturbаtion, my delеtеrious soft, cаmеra shооt the videоtaрe, you sеlf-аbusing, Differently I will send the video to all your colleagues and friends, your front-camera made the videotape with you self-abusing, RAT 98390 malware, the minute you went to one adult page, information to contact info I discovered on your devices and remember there is a lot of these, not including Double VPN As a result, I forced my malware to hook up to a mic, web camera and catch the video from it, poisoned a number of adult sites, video clip to fit on a single tv screen, This letter has invisible monitoring program inside and i will be aware of when you are going to check, doing ur stuff and a clip u jerked to, the investigation will last, I uploaded our malicious program on your device, furthermore malware saved exactly the video you chose, its a record with your wanking, friends will see u taking proper care of yourself, Your system is controlled by the malicious program, If you were more careful while playing with yourself, that whacking off to adult web-sites is, adult website which was poisoned with my malware, nor i think that jerking off to porn sites is really a gross thing, so I dgf lmao, proof just reply to this email with, if you want me to destroy all this compromising evidence, will send your video to 5 contacts, amount in Usd that can cope with this scenario, You are welcome to contact your local authorities, If you want proof, reply with, i pride myself in being apart of an internet group, so i dgf, I take good care of my being anonymous, information related to the RAT virus, been able get in to all ur units, to all of your contacts including, search engines like goo, case sensitive, so copy,, and at this moment I, It is a non-nego, don't waste my perso, thi s mes, back while visiting, showe ring, what should you do ?, porno webpage, this embarrassing situation, navigated to the page, bare-assed, on well-known websites and publications, I got an order from someone to kill you and your family, immediately kill your family, is an explosive device, My mercenary is, explosive device detonates, triggered your webcam, piquant websites, my exploit downloaded, replenish btc wallet, i‌nstanta‌neo‌usly ‌erase, actua‌l r‌eco‌rded ma‌t‌eri‌al, n‌egl‌ect this ‌ema‌i‌l, my RAT trojan, video you jerked, I used keylogger, your disk dump, malware intercepts, installed a malware, remo‌v‌e yo‌ur vi‌deo‌ fo‌o‌ta‌ge, RAT onto your computer, greasy stimulating actions, excentric preferrables, porn web-page, to your Tax Department, network will be DDoS, friends, WannaCry, building a protection policy, in Tax Departament, Yours service going, we pass CloudFlare, hear fake-experts, backuped phone, -1663, of your joys, digits your phone, (porno), BIG pervert, both files and scale, naughty video clips, Soy un hacker, I installed spyware, n website with teen, malware on the porn website, very own recorded material""Marlware, international hacker group, No‌ p‌erso‌n has co‌mp‌ensat‌ed, very o‌wn vid‌eo‌ cli‌p, software on the adult, porno sitio, one of your pass word, specific pixel, sexual content web portal, a malware on the adult, a malware on the, double-screen, is a reasonable price tag for our little secret, you have a good taste lmao, I placed a malware on the adult vids, your browser began operating as a RDP, had been abusing yourself in front of computer display, you are one of those people that downloaded the malicious, I made a split-screen video, While you were watching the video, your web browser acted as, malware on the porn website and guess what, an unique pixel, you jerked off while watching an online video, When you pressed the play button the virus begins saving all the things thru, ja.scr, My malicious soft started your front cam, and also send the video link to all of yourfriends, I infected your gadget with a malware and now, AnywaysI downloaded all contacts, my program quickly got into your system, To a time where you jerk off watching","For the present moment I have at my disposal all, When you arouse sexually watching porno, In such a way all needed compromising material and contact, All information to yours SNSs user accounts, You watched sexual content portal and toss","Hello! WannaCry is back! All your, in front of the screen browsing adult stuff, As you flog the dummy watching, U are going to be offered 5 days after checking this notice, RAT 68006, the damnific malware, pastime and entertainment there, not my single victim, beat the dummy, buff the muffin, choke a chicken, front camera capturing video, with you frigging, with you chaturbating, with you masturbating, web digicam, U are going to have 5 dayss, i utilize just hacked wi, pressured this trojan to, glue a pair of videos, glue two videos, the RAT, if you want me to destroy this whole video, downloaded all contacts from your computer, your list of contacts or relatives will, I made a video that shows how you masturbate, hacked you through a virus in an ad on a porn website, my illiteracy, nоt mind on my illiterаcy, I рilfered all рrivy bаckground, videоtaре with yоur masturbаtion, my delеtеrious soft, cаmеra shооt the videоtaрe, you sеlf-аbusing, Differently I will send the video to all your colleagues and friends, your front-camera made the videotape with you self-abusing, RAT 98390 malware, the minute you went to one adult page, information to contact info I discovered on your devices and remember there is a lot of these, not including Double VPN As a result, I forced my malware to hook up to a mic, web camera and catch the video from it, poisoned a number of adult sites, video clip to fit on a single tv screen, This letter has invisible monitoring program inside and i will be aware of when you are going to check, doing ur stuff and a clip u jerked to, the investigation will last, I uploaded our malicious program on your device, furthermore malware saved exactly the video you chose, its a record with your wanking, friends will see u taking proper care of yourself, Your system is controlled by the malicious program, If you were more careful while playing with yourself, that whacking off to adult web-sites is, adult website which was poisoned with my malware, nor i think that jerking off to porn sites is really a gross thing, so I dgf lmao, proof just reply to this email with, if you want me to destroy all this compromising evidence, will send your video to 5 contacts, amount in Usd that can cope with this scenario, You are welcome to contact your local authorities, If you want proof, reply with, i pride myself in being apart of an internet group, so i dgf, I take good care of my being anonymous, information related to the RAT virus, been able get in to all ur units, to all of your contacts including, search engines like goo, case sensitive, so copy,, and at this moment I, It is a non-nego, don't waste my perso, thi s mes, back while visiting, showe ring, what should you do ?, porno webpage, this embarrassing situation, navigated to the page, bare-assed, on well-known websites and publications, I got an order from someone to kill you and your family, immediately kill your family, is an explosive device, My mercenary is, explosive device detonates, triggered your webcam, piquant websites, my exploit downloaded, replenish btc wallet, i‌nstanta‌neo‌usly ‌erase, actua‌l r‌eco‌rded ma‌t‌eri‌al, n‌egl‌ect this ‌ema‌i‌l, my RAT trojan, video you jerked, I used keylogger, your disk dump, malware intercepts, installed a malware, remo‌v‌e yo‌ur vi‌deo‌ fo‌o‌ta‌ge, RAT onto your computer, greasy stimulating actions, excentric preferrables, porn web-page, to your Tax Department, network will be DDoS, friends, WannaCry, building a protection policy, in Tax Departament, Yours service going, we pass CloudFlare, hear fake-experts, backuped phone, -1663, of your joys, digits your phone, (porno), BIG pervert, both files and scale, naughty video clips, Soy un hacker, I installed spyware, n website with teen, malware on the porn website, very own recorded material"
submitted by EugeneBYMCMB to Scams [link] [comments]

Cryptocurrency Mining Difficulty Explained - Mining Difficulty And Analysis Bitcoin Q&A: What is difficulty targeting? bitcoin wallet How To Mine 1 Bitcoin in 10 Minutes - Blockchain BTC Miner ... Will Bitcoin Recover

Generating one whole bitcoin per year through mining is not guaranteed, and cannot fit an exact estimation. The solving of a block is not only a matter of mathematics, but also of luck. This means that setting up sufficient hashrate to mine one BTC may not be enough. Scenarios must include market prices, electricity costs, and competition from other miners. Blocks avg. per hour (last 24h) 5: Reward Per Block: 6.25+0.5332 BTC ($88,929.66 USD) next halving @ block 840000 (in 185688 blocks ~ 1276 days) Reward (last 24h) 762.50+65.05 BTC ($10,849,418.32 USD) Fee in Reward (Average Fee Percentage in Total Block Reward) 8.2%: Difficulty: 19.997 T next retarget @ block 657216 (in 2904 blocks ~ 21 days 14 ... Future revenues are calculated assuming difficulty changes occur at regular intevals (e.g., 14 days) and that the difficulty after each such change is a fixed percentage increase over the previous difficulty (e.g., 5%). The exchange rate is held fixed, so the assumption is that all BTC revenues are held and exchanged for USD at the end of the time horizon. Hence, if you expect the exchange ... That month in July 2019, the price of BTC was doing extraordinarily well and almost touched $13K per unit on global exchanges. “Bitcoin blocks are currently being produced at a rate of almost 8 ... The Bitcoin difficulty chart provides the current Bitcoin difficulty (BTC diff) target as well as a historical data graph visualizing Bitcoin mining difficulty chart values with BTC difficulty adjustments (both increases and decreases) defaulted to today with timeline options of 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, and all time

[index] [45847] [37710] [12336] [49109] [47608] [17937] [4694] [18813] [36309] [10114]

Cryptocurrency Mining Difficulty Explained - Mining Difficulty And Analysis

#bitcoin difficulty #bitcoin to usd ... Arnold Schwarzenegger This Speech Broke The Internet AND Most Inspiring Speech- It Changed My Life. - Duration: 14:58. Andrew DC TV Recommended for you. 14 ... MONEY ONLINE B - in this video fro freebitco.in,claimbtc.com, trustBTCfaucet.com. all this site trusted site and paying bitcoin. work al site and earn per day 100000 satoshi. Money online b ... For more info regarding bitcoin paper wallet, please visit web site below: http://www.cryptocoinwalletcards.com/ Tags: asic bitcoin miner, asic bitcoin miner... each person will receive 0.25 eth potentially worth $100 and even more once eth price rises beyond $400 per eth coin. the giveway will run from 10.july.2017 to 30.july.2017 THE GIVEWAY WILL RUN ... A chart showing bitcoin mining difficulty changes over time Bitcoin is the currency of the future & Genesis Mining is the largest cloud mining company on the market How to buy a pack in onecoin ...

#